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Emerging Iraqi nationalism, a challenge to U.S.?

By Atul Aneja

DAMASCUS APRIL 30. Faced with the prospects of a long-drawn U.S. occupation, a new phase of Iraqi nationalism, driven by a new set of political forces that the Anglo-American war has unleashed, may be about to take shape.

According to Haitahm Al Kelani of the Strategic Studies Centre in Damascus, the U.S. occupation is likely to be challenged by a new phase of Iraqi nationalism. He parallels the situation to the arrival of the British in Iraq after the First World War. Though Iraqis initially welcomed the British because they had `liberated' them from the Ottoman empire, they soon faced popular resistance, once it became clear that they had arrived to stay.

In the new cycle of Iraqi history which has begun to unfold with the Anglo-American occupation, the Iraqi people may not behave differently.

Mr. Kelani, however, recognises that Iraqi resistance may not become effective unless it finds external support, especially by neighbouring countries such as Syria and Iran. Recognising that both can upset its plans in Iraq, the U.S. may have no option but to engage them in a sustained dialogue. This process is expected to begin with the arrival of the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, to Syria in the first week of May.

Much to gain

Reviving Iraqi nationalism with an anti-colonial flavour, however, faces a problem. With the secular and nationalist Ba'athist ideology out of favour, Iraqis may be in search of a suitable ideology that will bind the diverse Iraqi communities — Sunnis, Shias, Christians and ethnic minorities such as the Kurds into a new resistance movement. Since ethnic Kurds have much to gain from the coalition invasion, their reluctance to resist a new U.S.-sponsored dispensation in Baghdad is expected.

In the post-war scenario, Iraqi Shias, who comprise nearly two-thirds of the population, have asserted themselves and made it clear that they are vying for dominant political space. The political overtones in the gathering of millions of Shias in Karbala have become evident.

Despite competing intellectual and political currents, the Shias, through a network of political committees, militias and other grassroots organisations, have shown capacity to organise themselves into an effective political force. The Iran-backed Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) has an impressive following among Shias. But its armed fighters belonging to the Badr Brigade may not be strong enough to face the U.S. forces.

Another Shia group, Dawa, however, is likely to play, over time, a leading role in mobilising Shia resistance. With offices reportedly in London, Teheran and Damascus, Dawa, it is said, has the organisational network, motivation and political skills to become an effective resistance force.

While the Shias may spearhead a sustained campaign against a U.S.- imposed regime in Baghdad, the chances are that they may push Iraq into becoming an Islamic State. Such a development, however, is unlikely to suit the Iraqi Sunnis — the traditional political elite in Iraq and a variety of Christian communities such as the Assyrians and the Chaldeans.

Mr. Kelani is of the view that the Iraqis will be able to counter this tendency and create a political front, bound by the common desire to see the end of the Anglo-American occupation.

Internal dissension

There are others who do not subscribe to this view. Faced with the possible emergence of an Iran-style regime in Iraq, the U.S., it is said, might like to sow internal dissension by encouraging the Sunnis into a political competition with Shias. There are also apprehensions that the U.S. might like to create "Christian islands" in Iraq as their support base, undermining Iraqi unity further.

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