The Hindu : Iraq's neighbours watching U.S. move in region

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, May 02, 2003

International

International

Iraq's neighbours watching U.S. move in region

By Atul Aneja

DAMASCUS MAY 1. Waiting for the United States agenda in Iraq to unfold, Syria and Iran are keeping all their options open to protect their interests.

"Much will depend on how the United States conducts itself in Iraq in the coming days," a Syrian official said.

Syrian commentators said the foisting of a handpicked pro-U.S. government in Iraq is likely to be challenged by Iraq's neighbours.

On the other hand, if the U.S. allows genuinely elected representation to emerge, it will not only lead to a "very stable" government in Baghdad, but will also encourage peace in the region.

According to Fouad Mardoud, editor-in-chief of Syria Times, an English daily, the "basic ingredients" of stability in Iraq already exist.

"The opinion that Sunnis and Shias in Iraq are divided is grossly misplaced.

Even during the days of Saddam Hussein, some of the top officials, including in sensitive intelligence and security agencies were Shias", he said. Both Syria and Iran, however, have the leverage to influence events inside Iraq, in case a new dispensation in Baghdad chooses to promote what is seen here as a "U.S.-Israeli" agenda.

Iran has considerable influence over three key Shia organisations in Iraq — the Jammat- al-Ulama which draws its inspiration from Qom, the Supreme Authority of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI) and Dawa, a well organised trans-national grouping which has an impressive grassroots network inside Iraq.

Syria's influence

Syria, on its part, exercises great influence among a wide sections of the Iraqi society, which it can leverage politically.

This is because Damascus and Baghdad have been historically conceived as twin cities.

Inter-marriages among Syrians and Iraqis have been common. In fact, so close have been the ties between Syrian and Iraqi people that some Iraqi Ministers in the past belonged to towns and villages on the Syrian side of the border. Besides, the trading communities of the two counties have extremely deep-rooted ties.

While bracing for a clearer definition of the U.S. policy in Iraq, the dominant view here is that a phase of tensions, short of a war, between the U.S. on the one side, and Syria and Iran, on the other will remain in the coming days.

There is strong suspicion here that "U.S. hawks", especially in the Pentagon, whose influence in the Bush administration is dominant, are unlikely to follow a "reasonable course" towards Damascus and Teheran.

Cool to Powell visit

There does not appear, therefore, much enthusiasm about the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, to Syria, as it is being assumed in Damascus that the chief U.S. diplomat only conducts and no longer frames U.S. policy towards the region. Besides, there is strong undercurrent of opinion that both Damascus and Teheran should make the strategic choice of seeing the back of U.S. troops from their door-step in Iraq and should shape their response towards Washington accordingly.

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