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Talk of early polls in Maharashtra

By Mahesh Vijapurkar

MUMBAI May 17. All major political parties, except the Nationalist Congress Party, have begun to speak loudly about possible early elections in to the legislature in Maharashtra and sources said, that if it were indeed to be held, the attempt would be to schedule it around November-end, 2003.

The presumption is that the monsoon would be normal, on time, giving the people a `feel-good' factor. That would take it close to polls in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Most often, the Maharastra Deputy Chief Minister, Sushilkumar Shinde, has been heard asking partymen to get together and be ready for elections any time, though the scheduled poll is only around September end, 2004.

Mr. Shinde's Congress too is engaged in this mental preparation right now but one major reason why polls could be advanced by almost a year is the poor economic situation. One more budget, a senior politician said, "and people would revolt; there is no scope for us to improve anything."

The Sena-BJP contends that there is no alternative to early polls to the Assembly. If more focussed than in the past, they can improve their vote by 3-4 percentage points to cruise to a victory and regain what they had in 1995 — a Government of their own with a fair majority. Their game plan is a combination of the Hindutva and anti-incumbency factor. The performance of the Democratic Front Government has not been exactly exemplary and their hope to restore the economy of the State has not materialised; it is in fact sliding further, on a day-to-day basis.

On the other hand, if such an advancing of elections were on the cards, the main elements of the ruling Democratic Front Coalition, the Congress and the NCP, have not come any close to working out a pre-poll alliance. The success of these two parties, political observers contend, depends only on their ability to forge a tie-up or else, the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena would stand to improve its position. The two have already sealed their contract and are looking forward to an early poll.

While Mr. Shinde has been talking of early polls, the NCP has been rather quiet, which by tradition means a lot of hard thinking is going on in its higher echelons. The NCP's leadership here, including the chief here, R.R. Patil, has been aggressively taking a public stance that the party would like to go to polls on its own strength. So are many elders in the Congress, including its chief, Ranjit Deshmukh.

This, however, is seen by observers as "pre-negotiation belligerence and that the two parties would work out an arrangement."

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