The Hindu : Thaw but no further...

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, May 25, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Thaw but no further...

By Amit Baruah

NEW DELHI May 24. A low yield, low expectation "contact" process between India and Pakistan may have broken the ice between the two countries but, so far, Islamabad has not named a High Commissioner; neither have the civil aviation links been restored.

On April 18, the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, offered the hand of friendship to Pakistan in Srinagar and his Pakistani counterpart, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, telephoned Mr. Vajpayee on April 28. In turn, Mr. Vajpayee informed Parliament on May 2 that India was willing to exchange High Commissioners and proposed the reciprocal restoration of the civil aviation links.

In his response, Mr. Jamali on May 6 agreed with Mr. Vajpayee's proposals, but expanded the scope to include road and rail links. He was "silent" on the issue of overflights, an issue that was immediately seized upon in New Delhi. "We should begin talks from where they were left off at Agra and work out an agenda for a tiered dialogue including summit-level interaction," Mr. Jamali said.

The very next day Mr. Vajpayee made it clear that he had no plans for a summit-level interaction with Pakistan in the near future. It has been repeatedly stated by New Delhi and Islamabad that they envisaged a step-by-step approach.

There is so much relief about "contact" being resumed after more than 17 months of acrimony that, as yet, there is no great clamour to move forward quickly. Even the "farce" enacted in Islamabad over naming a High Commissioner and the reluctance of either side to hold a meeting of civil aviation officials to get the first aircraft off the ground has not evoked much comment.

But, as weeks stretch into months, the political will of the Indian and Pakistani Governments will surely be tested when it comes to even doing the most basic things that are required to restore the pre-December 13 situation.

One cannot forget the "Mian Musharraf" rhetoric of the BJP in the Gujarat elections.

For many who were bitten by Lahore and disappointed by Agra, the Srinagar initiative and the telephone call by Mr. Jamali represent but a small step in what, if it is to succeed, will have to be a long process.

"Step-by-step" it could be, but in the past it has been one step forward, two steps back. Clearly, if the two Governments are to develop an appetite for the ''long-term'' they will have to eschew the "Mian Musharraf" temptation while simultaneously showing imagination in moving towards a compromise.

There is an understanding within the Government that a "road map" cannot be a unilateral one — a reality that will be crucial for the future of the contact process.

If, after attending to the basics of diplomatic representation and restoring transport links, the two countries want to move forward, then the Lahore Memorandum of Understanding does point the way forward.

The MoU, signed by the Foreign Secretaries on February 21, 1999, called for "technical" discussions between India and Pakistan on a host of confidence-building measures, including in the nuclear field "before mid-1999".

But, the Kargil war torpedoed not just this meeting (at the level of Joint Secretaries), but the whole contact process itself that was briefly resumed by the summit meeting in Agra in July 2001.

In the Lahore MoU, the two countries committed themselves to "engage in bilateral consultations on security concepts, and nuclear doctrines, with a view to developing measures for confidence building in the nuclear and conventional fields, aimed at avoidance of conflict".

While committing each side to abide by their respective nuclear moratorium, India and Pakistan also agreed to conclude an agreement of prevention of incidents at sea to ensure the safety of navigation by naval vessels and aircraft belonging to the two sides. If the experts could not meet "before mid-1999", is there any reason now that this should not happen "before the end of August 2003?"

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Opinion

Stories in this Section

Deep-rooted disease

Not left out

It's no different here

From cradle to grave

Thaw but no further...