The Hindu : A ray of hope

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, May 29, 2003

Opinion

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A ray of hope

THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT'S broad approval of the Middle East peace plan, thereby signalling its acceptance of a Palestinian state for the first time, has raised hopes about the road map, which envisages a final status agreement in 2005. Endorsement by the country's right wing Cabinet was not easy to secure for the Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, himself a longstanding champion of the view that there should be no Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. The approval, which was won with a 12-7 vote with four abstentions following a heated six-hour debate, could only be secured after the Israeli Cabinet attached 14 reservations to the road map. Soon afterwards, the hardline Israeli Prime Minister surprised even some of his fiercest critics by using the expression "occupation" while referring to his country's presence in the West Bank and Gaza. Defending himself against his own right-wing coalition in Parliament, he said that holding on to territory where three and a half million Palestinians reside was bad for Israel and its economy.

That someone regarded as Israel's most prominent hawk should now talk of dividing the land between "us and the Palestinians" represents a remarkable shift in attitude. Over the last few months, Israel has expressed its unhappiness with almost every important aspect of the road map, particularly with the final phase involving the establishment of a Palestinian state. A major cause for this turnaround is diplomatic pressure from the United States which, having won the war in Iraq, seems to have decided to make the road map the cornerstone for its policy towards the Middle East. At the same time, the U.S. has attempted to reassure its longstanding ally that it will address Israel's concerns about the peace plan during its implementation. The proposed meeting between Mr. Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas, has been temporarily called off, but the Israeli approval of the road map paves the way for the U.S. President, George W. Bush, to meet the two leaders early next month.

If Mr. Sharon's recent pronouncements have evoked little more than a very cautious optimism, it is because of the very nature of the Middle East situation — which is at once complex and fragile. Ever so often in the past, hopes have been dashed and promising steps have come undone because of various reasons including a lack of commitment, mutual suspicion and acts of violence. Unlike that of the Palestine Authority, which has fully endorsed the road map, Israel has clearly signalled its acceptance is only qualified — a fact that could make its implementation extremely problematic. Not surprisingly, there are serious apprehensions that Mr. Sharon's acceptance of the road map could be but a ploy — a strategic bowing to American pressure in the full knowledge that Mr. Mahmoud Abbas is much too politically weak to crack down on Palestinian militants as required by the peace plan. Although the road map charts out parallel steps for both sides, Tel Aviv has maintained it will not move ahead unless the militant groups cease to attack Israeli targets.

As things stand, it is much too early to hazard a guess about where things will go from here. Even the first phase of the road map — which includes a total renunciation of violence and an Israeli freeze on settlement and withdrawal to pre-violence boundary lines — presents all manner of challenges for those on both sides. Does Mr. Abbas, who is something of a political lightweight, have the wherewithal to disarm the suicide bombers? Will Mr. Sharon dare to offend his domestic constituency and raze the Israeli settlements that he only recently encouraged on Palestinian lands? All in all, it is much too soon to begin speculating that an entirely new chapter is about to begin in the conflict. At the same time, the recent developments provide a ray of hope — something that has been absent in the bleak environment of the Middle East.

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