The Hindu : `Conditions favourable for onset of monsoon'

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, May 30, 2003

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`Conditions favourable for onset of monsoon'

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI MAY 29. The long wait for the monsoon could finally be over.

According to weather experts at the India Meteorological Department, conditions are gradually becoming favourable for its onset over Kerala, its entry point into India.

The situation is, however, not textbook perfect: the onset would not be on the "normal" date — June 1.

It is likely to be delayed by three to five days, as though the atmospheric changes are taking place in a positive direction, the pace is rather slow.

But the delay, IMD officials said, did not mean that the monsoon would be bad this year also, as there was no one-to-one correlation between the time of onset and the over-all performance of the monsoon, since it is spread over four months and many twists and turns in the atmosphere take place during that period.

For instance, last year, monsoon set in over Kerala on May 29.

But, still the country witnessed one of the worst droughts because of several dry spells, with the most pronounced one being in the first half of July.

In 1997, the situation was exactly the opposite.

Even though the monsoon set in on June 9, by the end of the season the country had received 102 per cent of the long period average.

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