The Hindu : A Great Game on the Mekong

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Jun 01, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

A Great Game on the Mekong

By C. Raja Mohan

PHNOM PENH May 31. Even as the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, and the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, prepare the two Asian giants for greater cooperation, analysts worldwide continue to focus on the potential Sino-Indian rivalry in many parts of Asia.

One of the perceived areas of a geopolitical contest between New Delhi and Beijing is the Mekong basin. When India launched the Ganga-Mekong initiative in 2000 it was immediately branded as a veiled move to challenge China.

China was already promoting plans for the development of what it called the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) that included Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and the Yunnan province in South West China.

The expectation of a Sino-Indian rivalry in the Mekong basin is rooted in the past tensions between the two nations in the region.

But India believes it can and must improve its economic standing in the Mekong basin without defining a rivalry with any other power.

There is a big difference, as Mr. Vajpayee made it clear during his visit to the region last year, between political rivalry and healthy economic competition with China.

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The Great Game in the Mekong basin is about exploiting newly emerging markets, gaining access to its hydrocarbons, and building new trade routes. Nearly 250 million people live in the Greater Mekong sub-region as defined by China.

Two decades of reform in China have made the Yunnan province a throbbing economic dynamo, which wants to link up with the markets in its neighbourhood.

The recent economic liberalisation of Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, closed until recently to world commerce, has opened up some exciting new markets.

To realise its full economic potential, the Mekong basin requires the creation of cross-border road and rail corridors among nations that were inward looking until recently.

Many nations in the region are believed to hold large untapped reserves of oil and natural gas. Moving energy to the markets means building a network of pipelines.

If connectivity is the key to the development of the Mekong basin, the Asian Development Bank is ready to offer support. It has already pledged about $500 millions for infrastructure development in the Mekong basin.

Overall the region is expected to spend nearly $100 billions in an attempt to harvest the economic potential of the region. Rivalry or cooperation with China, how can India stay away from the gold rush in the Mekong basin?

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If economics alone were to drive policies cooperation within and across the Mekong basin should be the natural order. But a history of mistrust and the difficulties in agreeing to an equitable sharing of wealth create many political problems.

The management of the waters of the mighty Mekong has already shaped into a major tussle in the region. Chinese plans to build a large number of dams in the upper Mekong are raising deep anxieties in the lower riparian states.

Pessimists worry that China, which has control over the head waters of the Mekong and other rivers that flow out of Tibet, might show little sensitivity to the concerns of those down stream.

Realists are concerned that economic integration between China and the Mekong basin will inevitably make Beijing the most powerful external power in mainland South East Asia.

This brand new geopolitical feature could undermine the cohesion of the ASEAN and configure a new structure of power in our Eastern neighbourhood.

It will only be a matter of time before China develops transport corridors down the Mekong basin and gain access to the waters of Bay of Bengal and South China Sea.

Given the wariness in the Mekong basin about the political dominance of China, the countries of the region clearly look for a variety of other options that increase their own leverage. That is the context in which the Mekong basin looks towards greater economic cooperation with India.

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As it saw the dramatic expansion of the Chinese economic presence in Myanmar in the 1990s, New Delhi woke up to the urgency of raising its own profile in the neighbouring nation.

As part of a broader engagement with Myanmar, India began to improve physical connectivity by assisting Yangon to build roads. India is also linking with Thailand to create a transport corridor through Myanmar.

While the significance of economic activism in Myanmar has dawned on the Indian establishment in the last few years, the idea of a potential role in the Mekong Basin remains somewhat remote.

Bangkok, which is pursuing an aggressive economic diplomacy, wants an east-west corridor linking India to Indo-China through Thailand. If plans are implemented in time, one can imagine cars and trucks driving from India's northeast to the South China Sea.

A more purposeful presence in the Mekong does not mean New Delhi should shun the opportunities for economic engagement with South West China.

Beijing has proposed cooperation among its Yunnan province, Myanmar, Bangladesh and India's North East. It is New Delhi, which is reluctant to play along.

Mr. Vajpayee's visit to China provides an opportunity for India to test the prospects for an economic presence in the Yunnan.

If New Delhi wants to play the Great Game seriously it should be willing to dribble the ball in all the corners of the Mekong basin.

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