The Hindu : Indo-Bangladesh ties

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Monday, Jun 02, 2003

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Indo-Bangladesh ties

By K. K. Katyal

There are some faint signs of pragmatism having the better of partisan considerations but there may be no alternative to caution in the relations between New Delhi and Dhaka.

A BRIEF stay in Dhaka last week was enough to bring to light the complexities of the Indo-Bangladesh relationship, with tough bilateral factors further complicated by the confrontationist nature of domestic politics. There are some faint signs of pragmatism having the better of partisan considerations but there may be no alternative to caution in this delicate area. The conventional wisdom that the ties with India tend to ease under the Awami League rule and take a turn for the worse when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is in power has been upset in actual practice.

In 1996, Sheikh Hasina began the five-year term of her Awami League Government with a promise of relaxation in the dealings with India but towards the end a chill developed, rather inexplicably. It was perhaps because of internal political compulsions. A section of the Awami League rank and file suspected New Delhi's sympathy for the BNP and its leader, Khaleda Zia, at the time of elections. This did not prevent apprehensions of a setback in bilateral ties when Begum Zia assumed office about two years ago — and these were strengthened by the eruption of communal trouble and the bellicosity of the Jamiat, a BNP ally. The tactless response by New Delhi compounded the problem.

There is no originality in the causes of tension — border incidents, presence of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India, stalemate on the trade and investment front, Dhaka's reservations to the supply of gas to New Delhi and transit facilities for the far-flung north-eastern areas which, ironically, were enjoyed by India before 1971 in East Pakistan. As is often noted, Bangladesh is India-locked and the north-eastern areas are Bangladesh-locked.

The border issue has three sub-parts — the undemarcated 6.5 km-long tract, the existence of enclaves in each other's territory and the areas in adverse possession on the two sides. Why these problems were allowed to hang fire in the last three decades, even as there was little doubt about their potential for trouble, is difficult to comprehend. Of late, there were signs of seriousness with the Foreign Secretary, Kanwal Sibal, visiting Dhaka for talks with his counterpart and the border security heads discussing specific measures calculated to prevent violent incidents. This time, we were assured, the two sides meant business. The rhetoric in India on the illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, which assumed ominous proportions a few months ago, has considerably reduced — for the time being, in any case. Their number, as was known, was put at 1.5 crores by the Central Government — but Bangladesh disputes this figure forcefully and, in turn, draws attention to the illegal Indians on their side. But, happily, the glass is now described as half-full, not half-empty.

Here is one instance. Not long ago, the 6.5 km border tract remaining undemarcated was cited as a case of monumental neglect. Now the problem is sought to be de-emphasised — "after all, it is merely 6.5 km out of 4,100 km." The lull in rhetoric is to be welcomed, no doubt, but only a permanent solution can ensure against its reappearance. The mechanism to prevent border incidents was supposed to be in place but, surprisingly, it did not work satisfactorily. It has to be streamlined and strengthened.

The gas supply, essentially an economic matter, has acquired sharp political overtones over the years because of which an objective view becomes difficult. Sheikh Hasina, though supportive of the proposal of exporting gas to India, felt constrained when it came to implementation. Had not Begum Zia, then the chief Opposition leader, spearheaded a major campaign on the issue offering to spill her blood if gas were supplied to India? Her Government now has to live down the postures of the past.

In the present-day changed global context, Bangladesh (like India) would like to be on the right side of the U.S. Washington has already acquired a new leverage in Bangladeshi affairs. The leading U.S. company, Unical, is engaged in the exploration of the country's gas reserves. Guided by purely commercial considerations, it makes a strong case for supply of gas to India. How else would Unical get returns on its huge investment? This economic logic has yet to prevail upon political factors — the hostility towards India of certain sections which would not touch, even with a pair of tongs, anything that could be of help to New Delhi, even though it benefits their country as well. Obviously, it is not in Bangladesh's interest to stick to this self-destructive logic.

Both on this and the issue of trade, the ruling establishment, hopefully, may tend to take a realistic view. How long could it run against the objective reality — apart from geography, close ties in many fields. Several thousands of Bangladeshi students study in India; Calcutta and other centres are the first choice for the Bangladeshis needing medical treatment in acute cases. India is the biggest importer of Bangladesh's goods, China being the next. And, of course, its imports from India are by far the largest — $1 billion dollars officially and between $ 1.5 billion to $ 2 billion through "informal channels".

Many in India who have had held responsible positions, have advocated unilateral free trade treatment to Bangladesh. During my interaction in Dhaka last week, I heard more than once, the feeling of regret that New Delhi had messed up a golden opportunity for not only integrating the economies of the two countries but also of exerting a beneficial effect on the political climate. The opposition to transit facilities and gas supply to India would have lost its sting by now in the event of a unilateral trade-related gesture by India — thus goes the oft-repeated argument. The situation could be partly retrieved if New Delhi were to take some such step now. After a few years, under the proposed SAARC free trade regime, these concessions would have to be extended anyhow. After an avoidable delay, India has now offered the Sri Lanka-model of free trade arrangement to Dhaka — envisaging a longer negative list for it and a longer time period to reach the zero tariff level. This package could be improved from Dhaka's standpoint. Bangladesh pleads for a more liberal treatment because of its status as the least developed country. Given the suitable political will, a way out should not be difficult.

The BNP is the party of trading classes and, as such, there is an urge from within to expand trading ties with India. This, coupled with American exhortations, may well help counter the pressure from the incorrigible India-baiters, some of whom wield influence in the ruling camp.

The support received from Bangladesh by the terrorist groups, active in the north-eastern region, is a major sore point with New Delhi. Some of these groups have set up camps in Bangladesh, others use its territory as a safe haven when pursued by the Indian security forces. The Deputy Prime Minister, L. K. Advani, and other responsible leaders in the Government had been talking of the anti-India activities of the ISI, based in the Pakistan mission in Dhaka. This charge could not be stretched beyond a limit.

The presence of intelligence personnel in foreign embassies and missions is the hard fact of diplomatic life all over the world. And the Pakistani High Commission in Dhaka is no exception. The Bangladesh Government could not be held responsible, just as India could not be blamed for the presence of ISI-linked persons in the Pakistani mission in New Delhi. But Dhaka is responsible for the support and help extended to the various separatist and terrorist groups operating in Assam and other States of the region.

Till recently, Dhaka denied any such links while repeatedly emphasising its general resolve of not allowing anti-India activity from within its territory. That is not enough. A pro-active line is called for in curbing the role of `jehadi' elements and supporters of terrorist outfits. Curbs on the activities of terrorist groups is all the more necessary for, at some point, they could pose a major threat to the Bangladeshis themselves. Besides, any action on this front will be a major input in the efforts to improve ties with India. A measure of expedition needs to be imparted to the efforts to arrest the slide in India-Bangladesh relations.

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