The Hindu : Change and the catalyst

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Jun 02, 2003

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Change and the catalyst

ALTHOUGH THE POLITICAL machinations of the Rashtriya Lok Dal leader, Ajit Singh, might seem steeped in opportunism, the developments following his exit from the NDA Government at the Centre have raised the possibility of a united opposition not only in Uttar Pradesh, but also at the national level. Mr. Singh was surely motivated by personal ambitions in withdrawing support to the BSP-BJP Government in the State, but he is becoming the rallying point for the Samajwadi Party and the Congress in a fresh bid to unseat the Chief Minister, Mayawati. In his attempts to make the BJP pay for forcing him out of the Union Cabinet, Mr. Singh has paved the way for the coming together of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. The meetings among the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, the Samajwadi Party leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and Mr. Singh and the signals coming from the Srinagar conclave of Congress Chief Ministers hold the prospect of a regrouping of Opposition parties at the national level. Of course, the significance of such a regrouping goes beyond the immediate threat to the Mayawati Government. Until now, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress were uncomfortable in each other's company. Even in the recent past, the two parties were unable to coordinate activities in Uttar Pradesh against the common foe, the BJP. Apparently, the memories of 1999, when the two parties failed to agree on an alternative at the Centre after the fall of the BJP-led Government, were still fresh. Now, Mr. Singh could turn out to be the much-needed catalyst in improving the Samajwadi Party-Congress equations.

While the RLD, with 14 members, is not a big player in Uttar Pradesh, the removal of a pillar of support increases the inherent instability of the BSP-BJP coalition. Yet, in the absence of any renewed dissidence in the BJP, the arithmetic in the State Assembly is still in favour of Ms. Mayawati. The support of the Kranti Dal led by Kalyan Singh, and the backing of a few independents, are not enough to bring down the BSP-BJP Government. The Opposition parties have submitted a memorandum to the Governor, Vishnu Kant Shastri, urging the dismissal of the Mayawati Government. But, if the Samajwadi Party-led Opposition parties believe that they have the adequate numbers, the right course is to bring a no-confidence motion against the Government. As long as the Opposition parties are unable to demonstrate majority support, the Governor is unlikely to convene a special session of the House. In any case, the coming days are likely to see heightened activity in Uttar Pradesh with both sides wooing the dissidents in the other camp. Taking advantage of the fractured verdict, MLAs have often shifted allegiance from one alliance to another. To increase the comfort levels of the Government, the BSP and the BJP would no doubt try to split the RLD where there is already a simmering discontent. And the Samajwadi Party, for its part, would try to set off another bout of revolt in the ruling camp. The very nature of the BSP-BJP coalition, formed in a post-election churning, has seen the growth of dissidence. This is not the first time that the Mayawati Government is facing a crisis. Sections of the BJP have been unhappy about co-habiting with the BSP, making the Government highly vulnerable. The present crisis was thus waiting to happen.

However, there are clear dangers in letting opportunistic politics dictate the form of alliances. Almost overnight, Mr. Singh seems to have discovered that the BSP-BJP Government was a "jungle raj". As he himself admits, "political compulsions" (and not ideological convictions) have forced the coming together of the Opposition parties. Mr. Singh made the transition from being a member of the BJP-led NDA to being a partner of the secular Opposition with effortless ease. Indeed, in the last few years, he has moved from one camp to another. The catalyst can be allowed to force developments, but it should not be the face of change.

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