The Hindu : Musharraf in a bind

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Jun 09, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Musharraf in a bind

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI June 8. "Go Musharraf go''. Slogans to this effect on Saturday in the National Assembly of Pakistan reflected the growing political opposition to the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, as he prepares for a triumphant tour of Washington and other Western capitals later this month.

Gen. Musharraf, who is both the President of Pakistan and the all-powerful Army chief, is trying hard to stare down his opponents who want him to shed at least one of the two jobs. But with little effect so far.

To put it simply, if Gen. Musharraf sheds the uniform he will instantly become a titular head of the State and cede real power to the new Army chief. If he hands over the Presidency instead, he might be under pressure to define an early time line for his long overdue retirement from the Army. No wonder, he wants to hang on to both the jobs.

As the political protest refuses to die down, Gen. Musharraf will have to either accommodate his opponents or disband the present Government and the Assembly. An agreement with the Opposition, however, has been elusive and a re-imposition of overt military rule will go down badly with western interlocutors.

Skeptics, however, point to the run of political luck that Gen. Musharraf has enjoyed. Ultimately, they say, he would find a way to ride out of the current storm. The bigger his trouble, it seems, the stronger the American backing for Gen. Musharraf.

But others point to the structural crisis in Pakistan. Gen. Musharraf has by no means brought order to Pakistan and could indeed be a victim of the dynamics of instability that has plagued the western neighbour for more than a decade and a half.

While the debate goes on, the more interesting question is how the religious parties, traditionally close to the Army, have become so bold as to demand the ouster of Gen. Musharraf.

Are there rumblings of dissent in the top brass of the Army which might want a change in the leadership? Past record tells us there have been instances when the corporate leadership in the Pakistan Army forced the reigning General to yield place to another.

Both Generals, Ayub Khan and Yahya Khan, came to power this way. And both went out in disgrace.

Gen. Zia-ul-Haq of course was killed in an air accident. Political succession has never been a simple affair in Pakistan, and New Delhi is all eyes and ears to the unfolding drama in Pakistan.

* * *

On the eve of the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee's visit to China, Beijing is sending mixed signals on Tibet. Beijing received late last month a delegation of the Dalai Lama's top aides. This is the second visit by such a Tibetan delegation in less than a year and had raised hopes for a serious political dialogue between China and the exiled Tibetan leadership.

But these hopes have been soured by apparent political pressure from Beijing on Nepal to hand over refugees from Tibet late last month. In a departure from past practice, the authorities in Kathmandu picked up 18 Tibetan escapees and handed them over to the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu.

Traditionally, Nepal let the officials of the United Nations to take care of the escapees from Tibet and facilitate their movement to Dharamshala in India.

Nepal is getting an earful from the West for its new approach, but clearly does not want to displease China. Movement towards a dialogue between Beijing and Dalai Lama would have provided a positive environment for Mr. Vajpayee's visit to China. But tension between the two inevitably complicates matters for New Delhi.

The Tibet question is also said to be casting a shadow over the efforts to resolve the differences over Sikkim. Intense consultations are on right now in Beijing to finalise various agreements and declarations to be signed during Mr. Vajpayee's trip to China.

* * *

With the Foreign Office now taking full charge of the run-down Jinnah House in Mumbai by locating the regional centre of the Indian Council of Cultural Relations there, the Government is in a better position to redeem its pledge to the founder of Pakistan.

Contrary to Islamabad's demands in recent decades, Mohammed Ali Jinnah had never asked a return of his property in Mumbai to Pakistan.

After he moved to Pakistan, Jinnah wrote a letter to Jawaharlal Nehru urging that his estate be rented out to those with sound finances who can maintain it well. Jinnah specifically suggested Indian royalty or wealthy foreigners as potential tenants.

It was a request that Jawaharlal Nehru readily agreed to; the house was leased out to the British Deputy High Commissioner in Mumbai until the early 1980s.

As the lease drew to a close, Islamabad began to make a pitch for the real estate to house its consulate in the city.

While the former Prime Minister, Morarji Desai, was inclined to consider the proposal, both Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were vehemently opposed to handing over the estate to Pakistan. Technically, the Jinnah House was an evacuee property and Pakistan can make no claim for it.

The Government has a legal obligation to help Islamabad obtain a reasonable accommodation at market rates for its consulate in Mumbai.

That obligation will come into play when there is an agreement to re-establish consulates in Karachi and Mumbai. Meanwhile, the Foreign Office must keep Nehru's word to maintain the Jinnah House in good shape.

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