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By P. Sunderarajan
Speaking to The Hindu, senior IMD officials said that while the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon continues to bring good rain over the northeast, the Arabian Sea arm, which was earlier lagging behind, was now proceeding smoothly. Consequently, it is likely to advance into south Karnataka in a day or two and Mumbai could have its first monsoon showers before the end of the week. Officials in the Union Agriculture Ministry are, however, keeping their fingers crossed in the wake of a conflicting prediction by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF). At a meeting of the Ministry's Crop Weather Watch Group held here this morning, a representative of NCMRWF said the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon might soon enter a phase of subdued activity. A senior Ministry official said, "We are keeping a close watch on the situation as the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon is of great importance as it brings rains to the west coast and the Peninsula and this is the area which was worst hit by last year's drought." "As it is, sowing of kharif crops in the region, particularly in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu has already been delayed, entailing continuance of relief operations in these States, because of the week-long delay in the onset of the Arabian Sea arm. Any further delay in its progress could mean more problem". For instance, while for the country as a whole sowing of sugarcane has so far reached 35.3 lakh hectares as compared to 34.9 lakh hectares for the corresponding period last year, sowing in Tamil Nadu is lagging behind by about 0.5 lakh hectares.
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