The Hindu : Hoping for a good monsoon

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Jun 14, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

Hoping for a good monsoon

NOT OFTEN IN recent years have scientists, agriculturists, administrators and the people waited so anxiously for the onset and advance of the southwest monsoon. It was first predicted to set in early, but got caught around the Andamans. It would be a `delayed monsoon', meteorologists then said, as heat wave conditions prevailed in many States — notably Andhra Pradesh, during the second half of May. Finally, the monsoon set in over the Northeast on June 5 and Kerala on June 8. But it is yet to gather momentum. Doubts persisted on whether it would advance further and bring much wanted rain to Karnataka and lower the mercury levels in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The Bay of Bengal `arm' was reportedly stronger than the Arabian Sea `arm'. The country now has a string of institutions and experts who can provide short, medium and long-term forecasts of the monsoon, though variations there will be and sometimes they could be slightly off the mark. The general concern this year and the anxiety among farmers, planners and the public stems from a `poor monsoon' in 2002, resulting in drought in many States and failure of the crops in several areas. This has not only led to acute drinking water shortage in many regions, but also loss of crops and jobs for the farmers and agricultural labour. Inter-State problems over sharing of river waters have also intensified in these two years. With a negative growth in agriculture last year, the overall growth rate also fell.

It is in these circumstances that the southwest monsoon has set in this year, raising both hopes and fears. The Indian Meteorological Department, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast, the Crop Weather Watch Group and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, for instance, have at different points of time indicated an `above normal monsoon' this year. The reliance on the southwest monsoon is so heavy because it provides about three-quarters of the country's annual rainfall. Just as the forecast for 2002 pointed to a drought, there have been encouraging forecasts for the current year. The projections are that the country could receive 96 per cent of the average rainfall this year, though a stray forecast estimates it at a deficit of 15 per cent. The heartening feature, according to scientists, is that the country has been going through a `good epoch' since 1991. During this phase, droughts are not supposed to be regular and do not normally occur in successive years. Going by history and this `epoch' theory, 2003-04 may not be a drought year — at least the odds are heavily against it.

That does not mean that the Centre and the State Governments, farmers and water managers can sit back and wait for the rain. Even if the rainfall may be near normal, it is always possible that it will not rain in the `right places' — the catchment areas. For both agriculture and drinking water supply, it is essential to ensure good storage in the reservoirs and dams, where hydel energy generation also depends on the storage. The meteorologists will step in when weather systems such as a cyclone or depression set in over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea. It is high time the States started planning and working with other agencies to prepare for the monsoon so that they can prevent disasters during cyclones and, at the same time, harness all the rain they receive. This is where desilting and regular maintenance work in irrigation canals or projects acquire significance. Instead of always having to blame nature or the neighbouring State, they should be able to plan the agricultural operations and take care of drinking water needs for the rest of the year. Water management has indeed become a key area of concern, on which farmers and the public have to be sensitised.

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