The Hindu : LS election and BJP's dilemma

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Jun 23, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

LS election and BJP's dilemma

By K.K. Katyal

NEW DELHI: Will the Lok Sabha poll be advanced or held on time, that is by the first week of October 2004? Speculation over such matters had not been uncommon in the post-Nehru period but the game of surmise, guesswork and conjecture, witnessed now, is different. It has started longer before the scheduled time than had been the case in the past. And it emanated primarily from the ruling alliance, especially its biggest constituent — the BJP. Is it a sign of high morale or lack of self-confidence? The BJP's answer will not be accepted by others.

The Lok Sabha poll was advanced twice earlier — during Indira Gandhi's tenure as Prime Minister in 1971 and 1977. Other cases, where the Lower House's term was cut short because of the impending collapse of the governments of the day constituted a different category.

At the recent `chintan baithak' near Mumbai, the BJP leadership felt compelled to take note of the speculation over the poll timing. The many public references by the party president, Venkaiah Naidu, were notable for ambiguity. No, they were not thinking of an early Lok Sabha poll, their main concern being the Assembly elections in four States later this year. But he was far from categorical in rejecting the idea. He could not have been specific. A confirmation or a disavowal would have been meaningless, given the many imponderables, mainly the BJP's performance in the four States.

In the event of the party doing exceptionally well, wresting control of all the four States from the Congress(I), it would certainly be tempted to consider advancing the Lok Sabha poll dates. Such a victory would be seen as the result of a favourable wave, which it would want to cash on. That, however, is an unlikely case scenario. If the performance is poor or moderate, the BJP would not venture into the advancing plan. Why run the risk of cutting short the tenure of its Government at the Centre by eight to ten months? — that would be the obvious consideration.

Even if the party's top brass were toying with the idea of an early poll, any public commitment now would be premature. In the past — during the Congress rule — such statements turned out to be misleading. In 1970, for instance, Indira Gandhi denied more than once that she contemplated a mid-term poll. The comment of A.B. Vajpayee, then an Opposition leader, was as follows: "Mrs. Gandhi has denied she plans advancing the election. What other proof is needed that it is round the corner." Sure enough, it materialised.

The advancing of elections in 1971 and 1977 could be traced to specific factors. In the first case, the pressures generated by the Congress split in 1969 had made Indira Gandhi's position untenable. She did continue in office, but had to rely on the support of the CPI, DMK and others. That was not a happy situation. She, therefore, dissolved the Lok Sabha and the election was held nearly one year before the schedule — in March 1971. She won the on strength of the "gharibi hatao'' slogan. Later during the emergency, the Lok Sabha term was extended beyond five years — till February 1978, but Indira Gandhi stunned the nation by dissolving the Lok Sabha and holding the election in March 1977. This was the result of pressures within the ruling establishment, because of emergency excesses. The gamble did not pay off. She lost. The Congress was ousted from power.

Except for a sweep in the Assembly polls, the BJP, as already suggested, would be foolish to entertain the idea of an early general election. At the `chintan baithak', the issue was considered at some length. Whether there was a specific conclusion is not known. But the public was treated with grand rhetoric — `Mission 2004' would yield 300 plus seats to the BJP: the party would approach the electoral under the leadership of Mr. Vajpayee and seek their support on the strength of his "naam'' and "kaam'' (his name and performance). Otherwise, there was no evidence of its settling down on any platform. It appeared to be groping in the dark. Will, and if so, how much of Hindutva, Ayodhya, and anti-terrorism line would help? And so on and so forth. The party sought to project an image of self-confidence.

That seemed to conflict with the fact that the BJP had not won any Assembly election, barring Gujarat (because of the exceptional situation) of late. Then there was tension within the Sangh Parivar, between the BJP and the VHP, in particular. Advancing the general election would not be a simple affair.

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