The Hindu : A new regime in Uttar Pradesh

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Sep 09, 2003

Opinion

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A new regime in Uttar Pradesh

THE EMPHATIC VICTORY scored by Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav in the confidence motion he moved in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly should ensure a stable regime in the State for at least a while. The resourceful Mr. Yadav appeared confident that with his bete noire toppled, he would sail through the confidence vote. The larger than expected exodus from the Bahujan Samaj Party made it a cakewalk. Mr. Yadav was fighting a difficult political battle until a few weeks ago. The Mayawati dispensation went about slapping criminal charges against him and Samajwadi Party activists across the State. The way in which he has bounced back reflects, in many ways, the volatility of U.P. politics. The defection of 37 legislators from the BSP, for instance, reveals the fragile nature of the legislative wing of that party. The new Chief Minister could not have shut his eye to the implications of this development; they must have made him insist that the BSP rebels should not function as a distinct block in the Assembly. By ensuring that the breakaway group merged with his party, Mr. Yadav has pre-empted the possibility of an adversary turning the tables on him in the conceivable future. Consequently, he has gained leverage: the liberty to pick and choose from among a host of small parties that offered him support.

This development assumes significance in the context of mixed signals coming from the Congress. After conveying support to Mr. Yadav's claim as Chief Minister, the Congress has vacillated, unclear about the nature of its role. There has been resistance within its State unit to the idea of teaming up with Mr. Yadav even though most of the 16 Congress MLAs have been in favour of joining the Government. The apprehension within the State party seems to be that making common cause with the S.P. will effectively rule out a Congress revival in U.P. The Congress high command was in a spot given the presence of the Rashtriya Kranti Party, headed by former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh, on Mr. Yadav's side. By inducting two members of the RKP in his Cabinet, Mr. Yadav conveyed his unwillingness to oblige the Congress. Other political considerations have also influenced the Congress' stance and tactics. By retaining the option to walk out of the Mulayam camp, the Congress leaves itself room to work out an arrangement with the Bahujan Samaj Party in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi where Assembly polls are due in the next couple of months. The BSP, after all, has a useful base in parts of these States. If these factors led the Congress to hedge its bets, the split in the BSP and the consequent gain in the Samajwadi Party's legislative strength leaves Mr. Yadav in a strong position. With a solid majority in the House, Mr. Yadav can aspire to stay on as Chief Minister until March 2007.

The ease with which Mr. Yadav could break up the BSP legislature party is one thing. It does not in the least follow that the BSP's 20 per cent support base is on the verge of crumbling. Ms. Mayawati may have to go through a time of troubles given the `The Taj Heritage Corridor' scandal but her political clout will remain formidable. The social fragmentation in Uttar Pradesh is such that the BSP's support base cannot be breached with ease by either the Samajwadi Party or the BJP. As for the Congress, it is not even in the frame of leading political players in India's most populous State.

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