The Hindu : Sri Lanka: uncertainty over issues of governance

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Nov 06, 2003

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Opinion - News Analysis

Sri Lanka: uncertainty over issues of governance

By V.S. Sambandan

COLOMBO NOV. 5. By asserting her constitutional powers, the Sri Lankan President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, has jolted the ruling United National Front (UNF) into reviewing the status of the island's first real cohabitation government. Tuesday's rapid developments are likely to cast a spell of uncertainty on issues of governance. They could culminate in a forced cohabitation, a changed Parliamentary configuration or, in the extreme scenario, yet another general election.

In its own way, Ms. Kumaratunga's actions are the culmination of a political showdown in the making since the UNF won a Parliamentary majority in the 2001 elections. Sri Lanka's 1978 Constitution vests all executive powers on the directly elected President.

From the signing of last year's ceasefire agreement to Tuesday's Presidential move, there has been consistent, if controlled, friction between the President and the Prime Minister, spanning both constitutional and political arenas. The practical exclusion of Ms. Kumaratunga from the latest peace process was a contentious issue.

Subsequently, the inadequate media coverage to her reservations on the manner in which the peace process was handled and attempts to chip away the powers of the Executive President set the stage for the flexing of the Constitutional muscle.

Fearing dissolution since it completed one year in office, the Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe's administration has been trying many political manoeuvres, climaxing in the move to impeach the Chief Justice. This sparked the move to prorogue Parliament.

In the present context, changing the Parliamentary configuration would be difficult. A forced cohabitation, therefore, is the next option. The manner in which the next phase of the island's cohabitation politics moves would depend on how Mr. Wickremesinghe responds after his return from the U.S.

With a slender one-seat majority in Parliament, the UNF, with 114 MPs, depends largely on the support given to it by the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Included in this Front are members from the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (15), the Ceylon Workers Congress (3), the Up Country People's Front (2) and one more MP. The Opposition People's Alliance with 77 MPs, is the second largest party, followed by the left-radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), with 16 MPs.

Sri Lanka's elections, based on Proportional Representation and the List System, make ruling parties dependent on minority parties. In the weeks to follow, the stand taken by the Tamil and Muslim political parties would be crucial for the numbers game.

The prospects of elections are broadly directed by moves to forge an alliance between the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the JVP.

As these two hold contrasting views on the peace process, the way out of an election the island can ill-afford would be a forced but sincere attempt at cohabitation.

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