The Hindu : Q & A: Sharad Pawar

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Sunday, Mar 21, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

Q & A: Sharad Pawar

Post-poll alliances the key

Sharad Pawar, who broke away from the Congress in 1999, now says his alliance with the Sonia Gandhi-led party for the Lok Sabha polls is "logical" and only "a continuation of having formed a Government with it in Maharashtra." The founder-president of the Nationalist Congress Party, who is a key leader in Maharashtra, views the likely outcome of the polls as uncertain and in a conversation with Mahesh Vijapurkar, insists that a post-poll tie-up alone will determine who forms the Government at the Centre.

What's your take on Elections 2004?

I am not very optimistic about the outcome. The NDA's claim of a "feel good" factor is not true on the ground. Their claim of numbers is creating a misleading impression of [a] possible absolute majority. Look at the situation State by State. A majority is out of the question. The Congress and others will improve their position.

In Maharashtra, likeminded parties fought each other earlier but are now together. In Tamil Nadu, there is a new combination of the DMK and other smaller parties; in Andhra Pradesh the Telangana Rashtra Samithi's tie-up with the Congress will hurt the NDA that anyhow has no scope in Kerala and West Bengal. In Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, they are saturated. The once-divided Akalis are united and the people have not liked the treatment given to seniors such as [Parkash Singh] Badal by the Congress Government in Punjab. Only through the Akalis will the NDA gain.

What happens in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is important. Those who went against Laloo Yadav in 1999 are with him now. The NCP's four per cent votes too will go to him. Which means, across the country, the NDA will lose 40-50 seats.

What about Uttar Pradesh?

Uttar Pradesh is where all non-BJP parties are not coming together — SP, BSP and the Congress. How many seats and whose votes Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party are able to split will be the key. The Congress, with a limited base, has no possibility of improvement. The Congress' strength depends on these two; it will maintain or reduce its strength.

If they oppose the NDA, Mr. Vajpayee will not be able to form a Government. If they decide otherwise, it can be different but whether the NDA or the Congress-led grouping forms the Government, it will not be stable. There are certain partiers who are important but it can't be said how long they will stay with a group. They are not pre-poll partners. Whatever is convenient to their long-term politics, they will do. We don't know how and who will form the Government and how long it will survive.

When you tied up with the Congress, it was thought that you would bring others also on to the platform.

I did not work in that direction, I concentrated on the various Republican Party factions. The Congress has basically more interest in the States where some of these parties such as the SP and the BSP are important players. That is why the Congress suggested it would take the initiative to negotiate with these parties. It is [a] good thing. We are not mixed up but we will cooperate. That's why we did not take the initiative.

That means post-poll manoeuvres. Will post-poll tie-ups have credibility?

I don't want to name them but if some of them realise that [the] BJP is not in a position to form a Government, they may disassociate themselves from [the] NDA and support the other side. And that might give stability.

Can it happen the other way?

I don't think anybody who is with the Congress will go with the BJP.

All not with the NDA are anti-BJP. If the BJP is a major issue but they cannot come together, how can post-poll tie-ups be credible for the voters?

Difficult. Without coming together, contesting on a common programme, confidence cannot be created in the people. It has some minuses but not to the level that the BJP will benefit. The Left [parties] are consistent in their thinking. They are against religious fanaticism.

Are you satisfied with the line-ups as options for the people?

I am not very happy. When the country wants somebody to perform, there has to be somebody who can govern. This is one way to govern by accepting limitations and do the best.

What role do you see for Jyoti Basu, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sonia Gandhi and yourself after the results are out?

I do not know the outcome but the important thing is to bring all these people together, and tell them "forget about egos and try and provide a clean government.'

So you think post-poll tie-ups will be inevitable?

Yes, without that, no one will be able to form a government.

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