The Hindu : Elections could set tone for Bihar's future

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Apr 03, 2004

National

National - Elections 2004

Elections could set tone for Bihar's future

While the NDA seems dependent on `upper caste' votes, the RJD alliance appears to be formidable, winning back the support of the Dussadhs, a Scheduled Caste community.

K. Balchand

PATNA

The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led alliance and the National Democratic Alliance are heading for a direct showdown in the Lok Sabha elections, the outcome of which will decide the future course of politics in the State.

As never before, the two sides have, for the first time, secured a watertight seat-sharing arrangement among or between the constituents. In almost all the 40 seats, the battle could be directly between the two forces, save for a dozen constituencies where the presence of others could turn it into a triangular or a quadrangular contest.

Contesting 26 seats, the RJD has four partners in the Congress (4), the Lok Janshakti (8), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (1) and the Nationalist Congress Party (1) taking on the NDA comprising the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, contesting 24 and 16 seats respectively.

Trying to turn the clash into a multi-cornered one are the Communist Party of India, which has fielded five candidates, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) with a presence in 21 constituencies.

The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party intend fielding candidates in all the 40 constituencies. The presence of these four parties would matter in at least a dozen constituencies.

With 13 Central ministers in the fray, the stakes are immensely high for the NDA.

The State would be the ideal laboratory for a test of the much publicised `feel good' factor, than, perhaps, any other State in the country.

Against this backdrop, the NDA's goal of repeating its 1999 performance appears to be a difficult one. The mantle of command of the alliance rests on the shoulders of the Railway Minister, Nitish Kumar, who has emerged as its undisputed leader with the LJP chief, Ram Vilas Paswan, parting company.

In his new role, Mr. Kumar will find himself trying to match the prowess of the RJD chief, Laloo Prasad Yadav. But Mr. Kumar may well find himself shorn of a major chunk of votes, specially the Dalits, which would matter not only in a direct contest but more so in a multi-cornered battle.

The onus of success and defeat of the NDA will rest with the senior JD (U) leader. While the battle will be fought along pro and anti-Laloo lines, Mr. Kumar will have to contend with Mr. Paswan's offensive against him. The elections will make or break him, and, to a great extent, the NDA.

Thanks to Mr. Paswan's onslaught, Mr. Kumar is contesting from two constituencies, Nalanda and Barh, his own constituency. The battle between the two will be the highlight of this lok Sabha election.

With the Dalit votes presumably out of its bag, the NDA is dependent on the `upper caste' votes and the intermediary backward caste Kurmi votes. Surprisingly, the JD (U) has not fielded even one Muslim candidate — though the BJP has two — thus offending the minorities in the State.

The RJD alliance appears to be formidable, winning back the support of the Dussadhs, a Scheduled Caste community, to which Mr. Paswan belongs.

It makes the task of the Yadav-Paswan duo to woo the extremely backward castes, which account for a good 30 per cent of the votes, much easier.

The other factor which is important for the State is the repeated emphasis of the NDA leaders, particularly the convener and the Defence Minister, George Fernandes, that the Rabri Devi Government would be dismissed if the NDA were to be returned to power.

The fact that they are making the promise despite burning their fingers twice over the issue earlier underscores the desperation of the NDA in rallying the anti-Laloo forces to put up a good show.

Such statements could bring about a backward-Dalit-minority consolidation in favour of Mr. Yadav, which may help him to bounce back.

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