The Hindu : National / Elections 2004 : Few signs of an electoral wave as yet

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Wednesday, Apr 07, 2004

National

National - Elections 2004

Few signs of an electoral wave as yet

The Congress needs a huge swing of 10 percent at the Lok Sabha level, and even more at the Assembly level, if it wants to carry Orissa, writes Yogendra Yadav.

Graphics by Varghese Kallada

Orissa must surely figure somewhere on top of the Congress' priorities in this general election. For, if the Congress is to bounce back this time, Orissa is one State where the party will be expecting a significant recovery. Winning back at least 10 Lok Sabha seats here is crucial to the Congress' plan for making up the losses on the western front. The Assembly elections, due early next year, have also been advanced in the State and are now being held along with the Lok Sabha elections. That ups the Congress' stakes in the State.

On the face of it, there are good reasons for the Congress' optimism. First of all, the Congress has nothing to lose and everything to gain in this election. The last Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections saw a virtual wipe-out of the Congress. The Congress lost all but two of the 21 seats to the BJD-BJP alliance in the last 1999 Lok Sabha elections. The BJD-BJP alliance had a hefty 20 percentage point margin over the Congress in terms of the vote share. The Assembly elections held in 2000, a few months after the Lok Sabha elections, saw a similar wave against the then ruling Congress party. In the Assembly polls, the BJD-BJP alliance had a 14 percentage point advantage against the Congress and won 106 out of the 147 seats in the State Assembly, leaving only 26 for the Congress. The Congress cannot but improve from this position.

The Congress can improve, for despite these humiliating defeats, the party has not slipped below the threshold of electoral viability in Orissa, as it has done in many other States. The party retains anything between one-third and 40 per cent of the vote share in the State, a good enough base to bounce back. After all, electoral waves and reverse waves are not new to the State. The Congress has seen worse defeats, especially in the 1990 Assembly elections, when the party was reduced only to 10 seats. But it came back to power in the next elections. The Congress has also been strengthened by the entry of two prominent leaders from the erstwhile Janata Dal — Srikanta Jena and Bhakta Charan Das.

A quick look at the political developments in the State since the last election would appear to confirm this reading. Chief Minister Navin Patnaik looks a most unlikely successor to the fiery, regional legend that was Biju Patnaik. As the leader of a regional political formation who is not comfortable in the local language, he has only Omar Abdullah for company. His years in power have been characterised by a remote control political rule, excessively dependent on the bureaucrats. His political colleagues have deserted him one after another. Mr. Patnaik has managed to quell dissidence in his party with a heavy hand. A majority of the dissidents have formed a new outfit, the Orissa Gana Parishad. Some of them have joined the Congress. Meanwhile, the alliance with the BJP has been far from satisfactory. The State BJP has been a critic of the Government run by its ally. By all accounts, the BJD is one partner of the NDA that has not been able to get very much from the Central Government. It is understandable then that the Congress should sense an opportunity in this election.

Yet, the poll indicators received so far do not suggest a victory for the Congress. If anything, more than one poll has suggested that the BJD-BJP combine has suffered little erosion in its popular base. It could be that the polls are not entirely accurate in measuring the discontent that lies below the surface. All the polls were taken before the candidates were announced and the situation could well change after that. We saw a similar change in the Rajasthan Assembly elections only a few months ago. However, having made these allowances, the fact remains that there are as yet few signs of a change in the electoral tide in this election. That is something that needs explaining.

A closer look at the electoral record of the State shows that the Congress' task is far more difficult than it might appear. Over the last decade or so, the Congress has experienced more than just a few defeats. It may have suffered a long-term erosion in its support base. The party did win the Assembly elections held in 1995, but it was hardly a victory the Congress could be proud of. Its vote share did not touch 40 per cent, while the party had crossed the 50 per cent mark earlier. All the parliamentary elections held in the State show a consistent decline in the party's vote share. The Congress should be particularly worried about the erosion of the Adivasi vote in the northern region. In this region that borders Jharkhand and Bengal, the Adivasis are mainly Santhals. They have been drawn to the appeal of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and other Jharkhand groups. While the Congress has maintained its hold over the other Adivasi belt in southern Orissa, it has suffered a deep erosion in the backward region of western Orissa as well. In other words, the Congress may not quite be in a position to bounce back on its own. Perhaps the Congress leadership has recognised this and has decided to have pre-election alliances. The party has firmed up an alliance with the JMM, the CPM and the OGP. The Congress-CPI alliance talks have not worked out so far. But all these are marginal players in Orissa politics and may not succeed in rescuing the Congress from the long-term erosionof its support base.

This is where the BJD's alliance with the BJP offers a big contrast. The BJP was not a player in State politics till 1991. It entered via the western Orissa region, where the backwardness and regional discrimination were beginning to become a political issue. Besides, the BJP has cultivated a base among the Adivasis, in much the same fashion as it has done in Chhattisgarh and the rest of middle India. Thus the BJP's social and regional support basis complements the BJD's social base. The BJD is stronger in the largest and the most developed region of coastal Orissa and draws support from all sections of society in a way typical of regional parties. Orissa is now one of the few States in the country that have not witnessed any major sectional mobilisation, along caste or class lines. The absence of a large peasant caste has meant that politics is still the prerogative of the small upper castes and that Mandalisation has had no effect.

In this context of low participation and politicisation, the manoeuvres of the elite tend to be decisive. For all his obvious failings, Chief Minister Navin Patnaik has managed to maintain a clean reputation, something that cannot be said of his colleagues who have left the BJD. This has reinforced Mr. Patnaik's image as a benevolent patriarch, somewhat like his father Biju Patnaik.

The Congress shows little signs of a collective will to power. The infighting within the Congress and the Congress workers was illustrated by the tragic-comedy of the Gamang family drama over allotment of a Congress ticket.

There is no Congress leader of any stature today who can be pitted against Mr. Patnaik.

It is against this backdrop that the Congress faces a battle of numbers that is already loaded against it. It needs a huge swing of 10 per cent at the Lok Sabha level and even more for the Vidhan Sabha, if it wants to reverse the previous verdicts. If there is a mild swing against the BJD and the BJP, the Congress has very little to gain in terms of seats. The Congress begins to gain only if it can manage to swing more than two per cent. This is not impossible. But given the state of the Congress organisation, it is not going to be easy.