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Thursday, Apr 29, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

Terrorist factor is the big unknown

Shujaat Bukhari

Anantnag

In Kashmir, all eyes are now on the Anantnag parliamentary constituency in South Kashmir. Like Srinagar, this seat is considered a litmus test for politicians. The approaching elections are also a test for the authorities, with the militants stepping up attacks against those taking part.

The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti, the CPI (M) state secretary, Mohammad Yusuf Tarigami, and the National Conference provincial president, Mehboob Beig, are battling one another in a triangular contest here. Interestingly, all the three contenders are Members of the Legislative Assembly representing Pahalgam, Kulgam and Anantnag respectively.

In the 2002 Assembly elections, South Kashmir, which has 15 Assembly segments, emerged as a stronghold of the PDP, wresting 12 seats from National Conference. This catapulted the PDP, which held only one seat in the previous Assembly, to power in the Himalayan State. However, it is still to consolidate its base in the rest of the Valley, though the trends from the first two phases of the elections in Baramulla and Srinagar suggest that that may be changing. The PDP, deciding not to take any chances, decided to put up the high-profile Ms. Mufti as the candidate from Anantnag.

"South Kashmir is important for us because we started our real political journey from here," says a senior PDP leader.

The NC too had no choice but to field a senior leader; it chose Mr. Beig, a top functionary who enjoys a relatively clean image. Despite his nomination, analysts believed Anantnag would be a cakewalk for Ms. Mufti. But with Mr. Tarigami jumping into the fray, the contest is now keener. Mr. Tarigami, who wields considerable influence in the area, could take a sizeable chunk of the votes. Notwithstanding the fact that the Mufti Government is under severe criticism from the opposition National Conference for its failures, people here feel that the PDP has done something "good for them".

These include jobs for the victims of militancy, more transparency in recruitments and making the police, particularly the Special Operations Group (SOG), accountable for its actions. "Yes, they brought about change. Earlier, nobody in the police would bother to talk to us or register a complaint," says Imitiaz Ahmed, a shopkeeper. At the same time, the PDP's failure to fulfil its promises of giving a job to every family and ensuring speedy development are negative talking points. The NC on its part has not yet shaken off the anti-incumbency factor. This is in contrast to the other two constituencies of Kashmir, particularly Srinagar city, which see the Mufti Government as not caring much about the urban areas.

But what is worrying all those contesting elections is the terrorist factor. The question being asked is, who would be the loser in the event of a boycott like Srinagar or violence like Baramulla on polling day? All the three perhaps, but the worst affected would be the PDP, which is hoping for a big turnout.

The number of militants in two districts of Anantnag and Pulwama may not exceed 600, according to official figures, but their power to strike anywhere could disrupt the whole process. There are places such as Kokernag, Dooru, Achabal, Pahalgam and Kulgam in Anantnag and Tral, Shopian, Awantipore and Pampore, where no candidate has dared to enter so far. "The militants are very active in certain areas and have the potential to create problems," concedes a top security official, pointing out that all the three main outfits, the Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad were active in the region.

Few polling stations in Anantnag constituency — with a total electorate of 9,98,737 — are categorised normal. It has 666 `hyper-sensitive' polling booths and 385 `sensitive' ones.

The Deputy Commissioner of Anantnag, Rohit Kansal, who is the Returning Officer of the constituency, says that, "all the arrangements are in place".

"We are trying to provide foolproof security cover to polling staff and to an extent to voters as well," he says.

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