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NO ROOM FOR MODERATES

THE DEVELOPMENTS IN Yangon last week resulting in the removal of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt do no good to the purported attempts to launch democratic reforms in Myanmar. Known as a moderate in the military establishment, General Khin Nyunt was also the intelligence chief of the country; he went so far as to engage the pro-democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in a dialogue. Although Senior General Than Shwe, as head of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), retained full control before the easing out of Gen. Khin Nyunt and continues to call the shots, the replacement is all the more disturbing. Lt. Gen. Soe Win is seen as a trusted lieutenant of Sr. Gen. Than Shwe and the man behind the disturbances that led to the arrest of Ms. Suu Kyi last year. There was no way Gen. Khin Nyunt could have done anything on his own, given the hold of the military junta over the country and its administration. But as Prime Minister, he offered some hope for those who believed that a "constructive engagement" with Myanmar would help in the phased restoration of democracy. That hope may have been dashed by the junta now.

True to form, the SPDC sees no reason to offer any explanation for the sudden change of Prime Minister. It is treated as a totally military matter in which the people of Myanmar have no say, leave alone the neighbouring countries of South East Asia. Six years ago, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) admitted Myanmar as a member in the hope that such an engagement would gradually transform the junta into a passable form of government. While the military establishment in Myanmar has gained some legitimacy in the international arena on account of its membership in ASEAN and dialogue with its partners, including the United States and the European Union, it has done precious little to advance the cause of democracy. Yangon has taken full advantage of ASEAN and its rich experience and expertise on commercial and economic matters and tried to boost its trade with the region. Myanmar is expected to chair the ASEAN Standing Committee in 2006 and it is for the other member states to decide if the military dictatorship should be allowed the honour. The international community is expected to monitor developments in Yangon but there is very little it seems able to do to make the Myanmar Generals see reason and take the path of democratic reform.

The disturbing changes have taken place on the eve of Sr. Gen. Than Shwe's visit to India. New Delhi has already obliged Yangon by denying a visa to the self-proclaimed "Prime Minister of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma," Sein Win, who was scheduled to participate in a conference of the pro-democracy movement in Delhi. India needs to formulate a clear and progressive policy on Myanmar. It should not accept or go along with these actions of the military junta and turn a blind eye to the continued suppression of the pro-democracy movement. After conferring the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding on Ms. Suu Kyi in 1992, New Delhi failed to build on that signal. While wishing to maintain good-neighbourly relations with Myanmar, the world's largest practising democracy should not acquiesce in the perpetuation of a military dictatorship in Myanmar, especially after joining the international chorus for democratic restoration in Pakistan. It is high time constitutional reforms, set in motion over a decade ago, were brought to a head and democracy restored in Myanmar.

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