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Monday, Oct 25, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

TOWARDS A PHOTO FINISH

SURVEYS OF PUBLIC opinion in the United States done recently show that on an average President George W. Bush retains a slight edge over the Democratic challenger John Kerry with less than ten days to go before the elections. However, a detailed examination of the data suggests that there is trouble ahead for the incumbent. Mr. Bush crossed the 50 per cent mark only in the polls that sought to predict the electoral behaviour of "likely" voters. Experts consider predictions of this sort less reliable than projections made on the basis of information gathered from registered voters; pollsters can at best make an educated guess about how many among those registered are likely to vote. Mr. Bush failed to touch 50 per cent in any of the registered voter surveys. Two of these polls indicated a tie with each candidate winning 45 per cent of the vote. Mr. Bush led Mr. Kerry 48 to 46 in surveys carried out by some other polling services but this gap was well within the margins of error. Recent electoral history reveals that Presidents who did not have the support of at least half the electorate at this stage of the campaign season did not get a second term. The polls also show that a majority of the voters apparently do not approve of Mr. Bush's performance in office and believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. In the past, Presidents who did not register positive ratings in respect of these benchmarks of the public mood failed in their bids for re-election.

During the campaign, Mr. Bush highlighted his response to the challenge of terrorism with very good reason since that is the one sphere in which he is perceived to be more capable than his rival. On almost all other issues a majority of respondents tended to believe that Mr. Kerry would do a better job. Moreover, the polls indicate that only 19 per cent of voters view terrorism as the foremost issue in this election. In contrast, economic issues were of decisive importance for 27 per cent while 26 per cent were most concerned about the mess that the Bush administration has created in Iraq. While these numbers are encouraging for the Democrats, they actually expected to be even better placed after their candidates outperformed the Republicans in the presidential and vice-presidential debates. Mr. Kerry and his running mate John Edwards still have work to do in order to convert the public discontent with Mr. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney into positive support for themselves. At least one poll indicates that the Kerry-Edwards ticket is slightly ahead in the 11 "battleground States" where the contest is most fierce. The Democrats stand a chance of winning a majority in the electoral college even if they do not get the bigger slice of the popular vote.

With the electorate sharply polarised, the result is very likely to hinge on the size of the turnout. A massive voter registration drive has been taken up, mainly by advocacy groups that sympathise with one party or the other. While the high levels of voter registration might not be reflected in the turnout at the polling stations, each party is well aware that it must ensure that its supporters cast their ballots. The record shows that the better organised Republicans have been more efficient than the Democrats in this job. Mr. Kerry has lived up to his reputation as a strong finisher until now. He has galvanised the Democratic base and has just about enough time to bring the undecided on to his side. The question is: does he have what the end-game requires?

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