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Future of terrorism
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It is generally conceded that terrorists make rational calculations and that these show the use of mass destruction weapons to be counter-productive.
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IN ORDER to assess the future threat posed by terrorism one must bear in mind the changes which have made terrorism a new force in analyses of world order. The main areas in these changes are transport and communication, weaponry, the effects on society of concentration of vital functions on a decreasing number of critical nodes, and changes in social structure and attitudes. With the advancement of science and technology, developments in these areas have made terrorism a different and more sinister threat than it has been in the past. The question for the future is will these developments continue and will they magnify the threat which we already recognise is posed by terrorism?
The transport and communications sectors are unlikely to see significant improvements, at least in the near future, which may have major implications for the scope and incidence of terrorism. Whilst particular targets in these areas may become more attractive, the changes which gave terrorism greater impact have already taken place. The ease of movement around the world made possible by the expansion of the airline industry, in particular, and the spread of ideas and ease of relaying news of terrorist incidents made possible by communications advances are now everyday features of our existence. There are no foreseeable changes in these areas of a sort such as will enable a quantum leap in the leverage terrorism can exert or the ease with which operations can be conducted.
Availability of weapons
The same cannot be said, however, in the case of the development and availability of weapons. The rate of turnover of conventional weapons by the world's military forces has increased dramatically in recent times and many of these weapons are finding their way into the open market. It is inevitable that in the future any group which is determined to do so will be able to purchase or steal powerful, conventional weapons. Given the rate at which weapons now become obsolescent, the arms which will find their way into the hands of a large number of terrorist outfits will be very sophisticated by past standards capable of operation at a considerable distance from the target and with significantly increased destructive power.
The fact that states are more involved in backing terrorist groups than in the past also means that it is easier for the latter to gain access to sophisticated arms in significant quantities. The increasing involvement of states with terrorist groups means increasing availability of various forms of high explosives which are extremely powerful in relation to their bulk and which can be moulded to fit any shape or cavity, thus making them easy to conceal, and are difficult to detect by conventional screening methods.
Some counter-measures are now available or being developed to counter this particular threat. However, though more sophisticated detection devices are being evaluated, the reality is that as detection capability becomes more refined, so the composition of explosives is altered with the consequence that totally successful screening will never be possible.
Similarly, while there is a strong case to be made for responsible governments to legislate to mandate the inclusion of microtaggants (tiny chips conveying information about the type, manufacturer, batch, seller, etc.) in explosives at the time of manufacture which would facilitate their detection, tracing and identification, the reality again is that many countries will continue to supply explosives not so treated to those who use terrorist tactics.
Frightening prospect
To many people, the most frightening prospect for the future is that terrorist groups might gain access to and use weapons of mass destruction, specifically, nuclear, biological or biochemical weapons. Most attention to date has been directed to the possibility of some form of nuclear material falling into terrorist hands. There are a number of readily conceivable scenarios. One would involve the terrorist seizure of a nuclear facility under threat of having the facility sabotaged, thus releasing radioactive material over a large area. Given the level of security that has been shown to exist at some nuclear power plants in the past, it is not inconceivable that a determined group of well-equipped and well-organised terrorists could assault and take over a nuclear facility. If Al Qaeda could make an assault on the Pentagon, seizure of a nuclear power plant is comparatively a much easier job.
Other scenarios involve the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by a terrorist group. A number of possibilities exist here. One is that a nuclear weapon state may supply a terrorist group with such a weapon. Theoretically more likely is the theft of a nuclear device from a military storage point. The fact that a U.S. rocket could be smuggled out of West Germany, as occurred some years ago, indicates that subterfuge sometimes may also be successful.
Probably the most controversial possibility is that of terrorists being able to construct their own crude nuclear device. Experts differ as to the feasibility of such a project. However, much of the data needed to design a nuclear bomb are now freely available, as was documented by a highly publicised television science programme which in March 1975 featured a 20-year-old undergraduate from Massachusetts Institute of Technology who had designed a technically conceivable nuclear bomb. It would appear, then, that a sufficiently dedicated terrorist group could overcome the technical difficulties and construct a credible nuclear bomb. In all probability the capability already exists.
There can be little doubt, then, that it will be soon possible (if not already) to mount a credible terrorist attack involving nuclear, biological or biochemical agents. The one factor which holds this eventuality in abeyance would appear to be a rational calculation concerning what would be achieved by such an act. It is generally conceded that terrorists make rational calculations and that these show the use of mass destruction weapons to be counter-productive. Will this be so in the future?
The future looks bleak as far as forms of political violence in general, and terrorism as a specific technique, are concerned. Many of the factors that have led to the elevation of terrorism as a serious threat to open societies will be exacerbated in the future. To fail to respond firmly to the threat would be to give up a cherished way of life without fighting for it.
S. RAI CHOWDHURI
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