Date:11/10/2002 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2002/10/11/stories/2002101105411200.htm

International

Political uncertainty looms over Sri Lanka

By V.S. Sambandan

COLOMBO. OCT. 10. Sri Lanka's politics is headed for uncertain times, with its future linked to a judicial pronouncement on a key constitutional amendment proposed by the ruling United National Front (UNF) to prevent the President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, from dissolving Parliament after it completes a year.

Extreme possibilities may crop up from this latest phase of uncertainty. If the Government fails to push the 19th amendment — presently under judicial review — through Parliament, it could take drastic steps such as calling for fresh elections or intensifying its efforts to check the President's powers. A fresh poll can be called after Parliament, through a resolution, requests the President to dissolve it. That would mean the third general elections in as many years, which the country's shattered economy cannot afford.

As the main fear of the Government is that Ms. Kumaratunga could dissolve Parliament after December 5, it could prevent her from doing so by taking the extreme step of moving an impeachment motion against her. If half the MPs sign such a resolution and the Speaker is satisfied that the allegations merit inquiry, the President cannot dissolve Parliament.

Though Ms. Kumaratunga had given a written assurance to the Speaker that she would not dissolve Parliament as long as the Government enjoys a majority, an unconvinced Cabinet proposed the 19th amendment, which requires a two-thirds majority in the 225-member House.

The UNF (109 seats) is supported by five MPs from the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, giving it a slender two-seat majority. For the proposed amendment, it has the support of 15 MPs from the Tamil National Alliance. This tally of 129 still leaves it 21 votes short of the required 150 for a two-thirds majority, for which cross-voters are required from the 77-member Opposition People's Alliance. In a bid to win over some PA MPs, the proposed amendment also has a conscience clause, providing immunity to cross-voters.

It is against this backdrop that the Supreme Court's ruling is awaited, especially its views on the conscience clause and whether it wants a referendum on the amendment.

If the conscience clause is struck down, it will leave the UNF in a no-win situation, forcing it to consider fresh polls or to go ahead with efforts to move an impeachment motion against the President. A referendum will deter cross-voters, even if the conscience clause is retained, as they will lose their seats if the amendment is turned down at the popular vote.