Date:12/12/2002 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2002/12/12/stories/2002121204770100.htm

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Nervousness in both camps

By Neena Vyas

NEW DELHI DEC. 11. There are distinct signs of nervousness in the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress camps as some pollsters have predicted different results but most agree that it will be a close contest which could go either way. For the BJP, particularly, the stakes are high — Gujarat is virtually the last major State where the party is in power — and for the Congress it is a chance to prove that it can fight and defeat the BJP on its home ground on its own chosen election plank of divisive politics.

Over the last three weeks since the poll process began, the claims by the two major parties have changed dramatically, reflecting the changing mood. While the BJP began on a confident note predicting a "clean sweep" on the strength of a Hindutva tidal wave in its favour, every week the "tally'' of seats expected kept going down. From a "two-thirds majority" to a "comfortable majority" and then to "we will win but we would not like to play the numbers game" party leaders have been claiming. More recently, a senior Cabinet Minister admitted that the two parties were poised evenly and it was the last minute "swing'' in the mood of the 10 per cent "undecided voter'' which would lead to a defeat or a victory for the party. In other words, tonight could be the night which will seal the fate of the two parties.

In the Congress camp, a month ago, the mood was one of hope — almost like hoping for a miracle — but today the dominant view is decidedly optimistic. "We are very much in the fight and we can win, we will win,'' said one party MP. After all, the BJP had played the communal card, the people of Gujarat had been polarised, and a BJP victory was almost taken for granted two months ago. Then the situation began to change, especially after the Election Commission's decision against a poll in September.

Most Congress observers agree that the decision to put Shankarsinh Waghela in charge of the State unit and the push and determination shown by the party president, Sonia Gandhi, and the AICC general secretary in-charge of Gujarat, Kamal Nath, not to go down without a fight have changed the situation on the ground. For the first time, the Congress has engaged the BJP in a street duel, man-to-man.

To look at the numbers — the Assembly has 182 seats and 92 is the magic majority number. The BJP began by claiming that it could get 130 seats, this was scaled down to 120 after a poll survey gave that number, that was further tuned down to 110 and the latest claim is "about 95 to 105 seats". The Congress was reluctant to mention figures but claimed that it would be "a pleasantly surprise victory for the party". When pressed for a number, some leaders talked of 100 seats.

If the claims of both the parties were to be discounted by about 20 to 25 per cent — most parties exaggerate their claims — it would mean that both the BJP and the Congress would get at least 75 to 85 seats. It would then be the remaining 20 to 30 seats that would decide the outcome. And in many of these Assembly segments the contest is expected to be so close that victory or defeat could be a matter of a few hundred votes.