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War shadow over Afghanistan
By C. Raja Mohan
After nearly a quarter century of conflict, hope has begun to replace despair in this nation. But there is genuine apprehension here that the impending war against Iraq could take international attention away from the gigantic task of nation-building in Afghanistan.
There is good reason for the Afghans to worry. At the end of the 1980s, after the Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan, the United States, which had backed the war against Moscow for nearly a decade, just turned its back and walked away. The Taliban and its brutality followed.
Zalmay Khalilzad, special envoy of the Bush Administration, was here last week affirming that America can walk and chew gum at the same time. On Friday, the U.S. Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, declared that whatever might happen in the Gulf, Washington will not abandon Afghanistan. Assurances of this kind have no credibility until they are proven on the ground. Sources here assess that it might all depend on how the American military operations against Iraq turn out.
If they succeed in swiftly removing the regime of Saddam Hussein, there will be confidence here that the U.S. will fulfil its commitments to rebuild Afghanistan. However, if Washington gets caught in a protracted conflict in Iraq, all bets about sustained American interest in Afghanistan are off.
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An extended military conflict in Iraq would pose another set of challenges to the fragile Government of President Hamid Karzai.
The American war in Iraq could provide an opportunity to the remnants of the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda to whip up anti-American sentiment here.
Analysts here expect that there will be considerable public outrage against American invasion of Iraq in neighbouring Pakistan, particularly in Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier Province. Some of that could easily spill over into Afghanistan and boost resentment against the U.S.
These protests could come amidst increasing frequency of military confrontation between U.S. troops based here and bands of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, many of whom are based across the border in Pakistan.
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For the Bush Administration, political success in Afghanistan remains an important source of ideological justification for its war in Iraq. The U.S. attempts to hang Saddam Hussein on the rope of weapons proliferation have run into serious obstacles in the United Nations amidst resistance from France, Germany, Russia and China.
That the case Washington has made for war against Iraq has not been convincing is evident from the massive peace marches over the weekend across the world, including in the U.S.
The Bush Administration will now be compelled to justify its attack against Iraq in the name of liberating the Iraqi people from Saddam Hussein.
What better example is there for Washington than Afghanistan that has been freed from the Taliban?
The Bush Administration hopes that just as its soldiers were welcomed in Afghanistan after the defeat of the Taliban, the Iraqi people too would cheer the American troops as liberators.
American efforts to rebuild Afghanistan are also being show-cased as the future model for Iraq. After the ouster of Saddam Hussein, Mr. Rumsfeld promises, U.S. troops will stay on in Iraq and apply the lessons learnt in Afghanistan to put together a new Iraqi nation.
It is in this context that the likely visit of Mr. Karzai to the U.S. at the end of February must be seen.
On a special invitation from the U.S. President, George W. Bush, Mr. Karzai will travel to America after attending the non-aligned summit in Kuala Lumpur later this month.
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All eyes are now on the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who has brilliantly positioned himself to emerge as the key to great power diplomacy on Iraq. He has played to the galleries in West Europe by flirting with Germany and France.
In doing so, he has significantly improved his leverage with Washington in the looming showdown over Iraq at the U.N. France and Germany have gone too far out against the U.S. to now retract without a huge popular backlash at home.
Mr. Putin is under no such pressure at home and has enough flexibility to wait until the eleventh hour to choose between West Europe and the U.S.
It will not be an easy choice, but the speculation is that he might prefer cutting a deal with Washington rather than Paris and Bonn.
In the next few days, Washington might brand militant groups in Chechnya as terrorist. Mr. Putin, of course, wants much more than that.
He would like a large slice of the oil pie in Iraq and a say in the post Saddam political arrangements in Iraq and the Gulf.
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