Opinion - News Analysis

Quiet, for now

The Arab Street is tense, unhappy and sullen. Atul Aneja on the mood in the region.

THE U.S.-led military campaign against Iraq has begun to trigger street protests in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, the Palestinian territories and Egypt. But in a region with 300 million people, the impact of the war is yet to hit the Arab Street in general. However, as the war progresses, ordinary Arabs could protest in greater numbers, especially when the widely-viewed television channels such as Al Jazeera start showing images of civilian suffering. At the moment, the Arab Street is tense, unhappy and sullen.

Why this uncharacteristic show of "restraint", especially at a time when the Europeans — outsiders to the region — are incensed by the Bush war? One explanation, doing the rounds in academic circles, is that Arabs in most parts of West Asia are disillusioned with the idea of political struggle. Nearly two generations of Arabs are beginning to discover that their support for the Palestinian cause is leading nowhere. The defiance of fiery Arab leaders such as Nasser has given way to steady capitulation to foreigners by his successors. The Arab summits, which have of late degenerated into slanging matches among the leaders, have hardly been inspiring.

Consequently, a new generation of moderate Arabs is hungry for change, even if the Americans are bringing it about. There is a clear understanding among them that the ongoing war is not about Iraqi disarmament or regime change, but about realigning the geopolitical map of the region. Unlike in the first Gulf War of 1991, which was for restoring the status quo altered by the Iraq President, Saddam Hussein, by his occupation of Kuwait, the Bush administration's war 12 years later is all about change.

So, are the Americans, the harbingers of change, being applauded for their action in Iraq? Nothing could be farther from the truth. After all, the U.S. policy in West Asia has historically clashed with Arab sensitivities. The American involvement with the region began in the late 1940s when Washington supported the foundation of Israel at the cost of the Palestinians. Soon after, the U.S. engineered the overthrow of the nationalist Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, in a military coup, setting the stage for the emergence of Ayatollah Khomeini 25 years later. In Egypt, the Americans backed extremists to undermine the Nasserite movement, the second major secular political movement in the region since the early 19th century. When Nasserism ended in 1976, the floodgates were opened for the fundamentalists to dominate West Asian society.

But so deep is the disillusionment with their present condition, that many in the Arab world, albeit without enthusiasm, may be willing to take a look at the U.S. President, George Bush's road map for democracy in the region and his promise of an independent Palestinian state by 2005. Whether the Arabs feel let down once again and are drawn deeper into fundamentalism remains to be seen.

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