Opinion - Editorials

Monsoon mystery

AFTER THE WORST drought in 15 years in 2002, which engulfed nearly one-third of the country's total area and was caused by a 19 per cent below normal rainfall, excitement over reports from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) about the arrival of the southwest monsoon at least a fortnight ahead of schedule may be understandable. But unlike last time, the IMD appears to be more circumspect about its own predictions this year and that is perhaps where the real import of its forecast lies. Although it has confirmed the early arrival of the monsoon, its forecast issued last month predicts a below normal rainfall (that is, up to 10 per cent less than the Long Period Average) of around 96 per cent. Last year's drought broke a spell of 14 successive years of normal or near normal rainfall. True to the vagaries of the climate, the monsoon commenced three days ahead of its usual onset in early June and the country in fact received a four per cent above normal rainfall for the month. However, its advance into central and northern India was delayed by weeks, resulting in extended heat-wave conditions and causing considerable damage to oilseed and grain crops. The shortfall was particularly acute with 49 per cent below-normal rains at the all-India level for the month of July alone — an all-time low in the history of recorded observation. The situation could have further deteriorated, but for the subsequent revival of the monsoon in August and its delayed withdrawal in late September. Therefore, the IMD's announcement last week of the advance of the southwest monsoon into the Andaman seas and its corresponding early arrival on the Kerala coast by May 21 must be read together with its forecast of a below normal rainfall.

The early onset is partly attributed to the cyclonic storm that developed over the Bay of Bengal last week, itself well in advance of the normal formation in June. But a more definitive basis underlying the meteorologists' forecast of a better monsoon for the current year appears to be related to what has come to be known as the El Nino phenomenon. Its occurrence, although confined to the Pacific Ocean, has climatic repercussions worldover. The eight-month El Nino of 1997-1998, for instance, had caused floods in Peru and droughts followed by forest fires in Sumatra, Borneo and Malaysia. Indian meteorologists believe that there is a fading El Nino this year and are thus hopeful that deficiency in rainfall would be nowhere near what it was last year. Their optimism may well have a scientific basis. At the same time, it is understandable why their hope is tempered with a degree of caution. In 2002, the IMD had alluded to the presence of the El Nino factor in its monsoon forecast, while simultaneously predicting a normal rainfall. Although this apparent contradiction was explained in terms of the El Nino showing signs of abating in some parts, it subsequently picked up in others. The net result was a skewed forecast that caught the subcontinent unawares.

Although climatic variations are monitored with the help of advanced remote sensing satellite technology today, the likelihood of open-ended outcomes in relation to the precipitation of monsoon rains or the hazardous consequences of nature's fury cannot be ruled out. To that extent, even the most realistic disaster management strategies may fail to deliver what they are expected to. But any improvement can be achieved only by harnessing modern technology with socially accountable policies for the long term and putting in place effective mechanisms to cope with contingencies in the short and medium terms. In relation to the specific situation of confronting the challenge of deficient rainfall and acute drought, the answer may lie in the efficient management of rapidly depleting groundwater resources in addition to constantly improving existing models of scientifically predicting changing weather patterns.

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