Date:28/03/2004 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2004/03/28/stories/2004032806240800.htm

National

Congress questions methodology

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, MARCH 27. Without commenting on the results of the NDTV-Indian Express opinion poll which gave the National Democratic Alliance about 300 seats, the Congress today questioned the methodology of the survey while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) disagreed with the findings and described them as "premature and unscientific.''

Reacting to questions on the survey at a press conference here, the Congress spokesman, Abhishek Singhvi, said: "Those who wish to capture the entire democracy of the 66 crore people through a sample survey of 40,000 deserve a Nobel Prize for miniaturisation.'' Questioning the methodology — "but not the motive''— of such surveys, he said the Congress did not believe such exercises promoted democracy; instead, "they distort the essence of democracy.''

Referring to earlier surveys that had shown Congress at a disadvantage in the run-up to the 1998 elections in Madhya Pradesh and the 2003 polls in Himachal Pradesh — only to be proven wrong by the actual verdict — Mr. Singhvi said a survey shown on Zee TV on Friday itself had a different story to tell. "This only proves that such surveys cannot be relied upon.'' "For good measure, the `self-proclaimed psephologists' should learn from their past mistakes."

The CPI (M) disagreed with the findings of the survey and said it did not reflect the objective situation on the ground because it was conducted at a time when political parties were still in the process of firming up alliances and finalising their candidates.

Briefing newsmen, senior politburo member, Sitaram Yechury, was of the view that in most parts of the country the social background of the candidate was an important consideration.

Mr. Yechury said that in the past the poll surveys had proved to be far off the mark and their track record had raised serious question marks over their accuracy. "During the last Assembly elections in West Bengal, poll surveys predicted a huge majority for the Trinamool Congress - Congress combine but we ended up getting a two-third majority." He also cited the example of poll surveys conducted on the eve of the recent Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, which predicted a victory for the Congress but the Bharatiya Janata Party won in both these States.