Date:30/05/2004 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2004/05/30/stories/2004053000390400.htm

Back Wheat, coarse grains production recovers

G. Chandrashekhar

Export availabilities in India will be less.

Mumbai May 29

WORLD wheat production in 2004 is estimated at 599 million tonnes (mt), 46 mt up from 2003, while consumption is expected to rise by 13 mt to a new high of 602 mt in 2004-05, according to the latest numbers released by the International Grains Council (IGC).

Total food use is expected to rise by 2 mt to 429 mt, while feed use my rebound by 9 mt to 101 mt following much larger wheat supplies in Europe and the CIS, where import needs are expected to be lower.

World wheat trade is forecast to remain near last year's 5-year low of 99 mt. Far East Asia will show increase in trade, mainly China, where 2 mt of the forecast total imports of 7 mt are already committed, IGC pointed out.

While overall supplies in the five major exporters will be much larger than in 2003-04, export availabilities in other countries including China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Russia will be less.

Coarse grains: The output in 2004 is set to recover to 938 mt (906 mt), while consumption will rise by 5 mt to 945 mt in 2004-05.

World trade is placed 3 mt lower at 101 mt.

Specifically, the new maize (corn) production forecast is 644 mt, 26 mt more than in 2003.

World maize consumption in 2004-05 is forecast to increase by 12 mt from last year to 656 mt.

Larger supplies will result in a sharp recovery in feed use in the European Union (EU), particularly for poultry, the London-based agency noted in its report adding that in the US, ethanol production will absorb a record 33 mt of maize, 2.6 mt more than last year.

IGC forecast world maize trade at 76 mt, 4 mt less than in 2003-04.

While EU imports will fall sharply following a big crop, relatively high prices and freight rates may dampen import growth in Far East Asia.