AFTER THE LULL of nearly four weeks, the revival of the South-West monsoon last weekend should bring some relief, if not cheer, to farmers and policymakers alike. With widespread rains in central and western regions, covering Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and eastern Rajasthan, the last two-three days, fears of a large-scale disaster have considerably receded. Late sown crops may be saved and some replanting can take place too. Normal rains in August and September will avert a drinking water problem and provide fodder for cattle, besides brightening the prospects for rabi planting. But this in no way diminishes the grimness of the current ground reality — lower coverage for major kharif crops and the threat of lower yields resulting in overall production falling not only far short of the season's target, but also well below 2003 kharif output.

Admittedly, there is a shortfall of about 45 lakh hectares in kharif sowing which is likely to affect production of coarse cereals, sugarcane and pulses, in particular. Field reports also suggest moisture stress hurting cotton, oilseeds and even paddy in some regions. Kharif is critical for the country as harvest of over half of the foodgrains, two-thirds of the oilseeds and even a larger share of the cotton and sugarcane crops happens in this season. So, on current reckoning, agriculture cannot be expected to make any significant contribution to GDP growth this fiscal. In the last 13 years of economic liberalisation, agriculture suffered negative growth in four years and below-one per cent growth in two. The country continues to remain vulnerable to weather shocks. The low share of irrigated area for important crops — foodgrains 45 per cent, cotton 35 per cent and oilseeds 25 per cent — makes agriculture a gamble on the monsoon for most farmers. Successive governments have paid only lip service to this sector without actually ensuring a step-up in public investment or creating a conducive environment to attract private investment. Farm sector reforms have largely been confined to pricing and trade-related measures — removal of storage, movement and credit access restrictions.

These are relatively easy to carry out. The tough ones are the structural problems that continue to stymie growth — consolidation of fragmented landholding, scientific water management, infusion of technology and investment in rural infrastructure, to name a few. Unless these are addressed urgently, agriculture — on which depends the livelihood of nearly two-third of the population — will continue to be vulnerable to both internal and external challenges. It is a pity that there has been no national consensus on tackling these critical issues because of a lack of national endeavour. An economy that refuses to learn from its past omissions and commissions will have to suffer uneven, and often stunted, growth. Given the income and demographic pressures, forecasts of India becoming a large importer of foodgrains could come true sooner than expected. The time is perhaps most opportune for all political parties to come together to assess the human, financial and technological resources needed to evolve a clear roadmap for the agricultural sector.

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