C.J. Punnathara

Kochi , Jan. 21

AFTER the threat of emigration and remittances trickling down during the current century, there are comforting signals to the contrary from the Kerala economy.

"Five years ago, we thought that Kerala's Gulf connection was a passing phase in its history. Today, not only has the Gulf emigration become more well-entrenched, some of the second generation emigrants are settling down in their host country and others are spreading out to a much wider spectrum of countries," a study conducted by the Centre for Development Studies has said.

The threat to migration from Kerala arose because of the scourge of shrinking job base in the Gulf and increased competition among workers from several countries.

In this background, it was presumed that large-scale return migration would far outnumber the number of emigrants from the beginning of this century. However, the number of emigrants and the remittances flowing back to Kerala has continued to grow during the last five years between 1999-2004. But despite the pleasant turn of events, it has not been all happy tidings on the emigration and remittances front.

The increased remittances from the Gulf has enhanced the surplus disposable income available to the Kerala households, which had its effect on the consumption pattern in the State. However, higher levels of consumption have not helped in the industrialisation of Kerala as most of the goods consumed in Kerala still come from outside the State.

On the other hand, the potential spin-off effects of remittances on employment are benefiting workers from outside Kerala more than workers from the State. Adverse consequence is the emergence of replacement migration, the study, Gulf Revisited: Consequences of Emigration from Kerala, by Mr K.C. Zachariah and Mr S. Irudaya Rajan, has said.

Emigrants from Kerala have converted Kerala itself into a mini-Gulf for many workers from other States in the country. By accepting low wages and poor living conditions here, outside workers are taking away a lot of work which could have gone to Kerala workforce.

Replacement migration is a consequence of emigration and is having a significant effect on unemployment and wage rates in Kerala.

In effect, skilled labour in the fields of masonry and carpentry from Kerala are emigrating to the Gulf in large numbers to be replaced by migrant skilled and unskilled labour from the neighbouring States. It is nullifying some of the potentially positive spin-off effects of migration, the study said.

Vital statistics

The number of emigrants from Kerala has increased by 35 per cent from 13.6 lakh in 1999 to 18.4 lakh in 2004, a study by the Centre for Development Studies has said.

More importantly, Kerala emigrants have spread their wings over a large number of countries during the last five years, including countries of Europe, America and South East Asia. In the Gulf itself, Saudi Arabia has lost its charm and UAE has emerged as the preferred destination.

Remittances to the State have soared from Rs 13,65,000 crore in 1999 to Rs 18,46,000 crore in 2004. Foreign remittances to the State have been seven times of what the State received from the Government of India as budget support, the study said. Increasing number of women and more so married women have been emigrating to the Gulf and other destinations. Dispelling the threat of surge in return migrations, the study found that total of both emigrants and return migrants which was 21 lakh in 1999 has only grown to 27.3 lakh in 2004.

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