Vinson Kurian

Planners and decision-makers have to be realistic, and come to terms with the fact that alternating deluges and droughts would be a normal occurrence from now on.

Thiruvananthapuram , March 7

THE evolving weather in the State of Kerala, marked by sudden drenchers interspersed with long dry spells, is the best available indicator yet of the lengthening shadow of global warming creeping into our own backyard.

Global warming has never sounded so close, says Dr C.K. Rajan, Head, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology (Cusat).

A decade ago, it may have been wallowing in the realm of conjecture. But no longer, if analysis of climate data spanning over 100 years recorded from more than a dozen centres in the State with varying geographical and climatological attributes is any indication.

It is high time planners and decision-makers factored the emerging weather pattern into their scheme of things, says Dr Rajan who analysed the data.

According to him, the data reveals a `glaring change' in weather that holds a mirror to the warming of the globe at large and its inevitable impact. This has implications for policy-making in areas as varied as farming, food security and public health.

Citing a recent anecdote, Dr Rajan said organisers of the India-Pakistan one-day cricket match in Ernakulam slated for April 2 have been formally alerted to the possibility of thundershowers that day. According to experts tracking global warming, there is a growing risk that the climate will change in ways that will seriously disrupt our lives. While on average the globe will get warmer and receive more precipitation, individual regions will experience different climatic changes and environmental impacts.

Among the most severe consequences of global warming are: a faster rise in sea level, more heat waves and droughts, resulting in more and more conflicts for water resources; more extreme weather events producing floods and property destruction; and a greater potential for heat-related illnesses and deaths as well as the wider spread of infectious diseases carried by insects and rodents into areas previously free from them.

According to Dr Rajan, there has been an appreciable increase in sea surface temperatures (SST) in recent times.

Also, convective activity is being triggered earlier than usual and in increasingly violent fashion. This is often followed closely by a drought-like spells marked by intense heating of the land.

This feeds on the moisture-laden winds blowing in from the nearby sea leading to the next spell of convective showers within a confined locality.

Planners and decision-makers have to be realistic, and come to terms with the fact that alternating deluges and droughts would be a normal occurrence from now on. "There's no escaping the reality. Planners need to fine-tune decision-making in accordance with the abrupt changes in weather that are more pronounced now than at any point of time in history. This is the way it will hold in the future, too," Dr Rajan said.

The need for conserving water resources, by way of rainwater harvesting or otherwise, will be felt more than ever. Efforts must be launched on a war-footing to educating public on the implications and making them save every drop otherwise wasted as rainwater runoff.

Answering a specific question, he said even performance of the two monsoons would also largely follow the `splurge' and `denial' pattern. Only, the extent will be much more pronounced in these cases. The State, why even the country at large, had better be wary of more frequent and prolonged break monsoon-like situations occurring.

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