Back Bears prevail
K. Premkumar
BEARS gained control of Friday's trading activity but had no impact on the tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.
Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hour of Friday's trading, the March contract gained around 12 points. Thereafter, bears made a strong comeback and wiped out their early losses. The March contract moved within a band of 26 points registering an intra-day low of 2143.65. It closed with a loss of nine points with respect to previous close.
The sideways trend in the March contract remains intact. Bullish trigger level for the March contract is placed quite closer to the last traded value. Bull domination on Monday has the potential to trigger the uptrend in the March contract. Bearish trigger level for the March contract remains unchanged and this is unlikely to be triggered on Monday.
Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, State Bank and Reliance. For those still holding long position in ONGC may do so with the stop loss placed at 911.95.
None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Bear move on Monday is likely to terminate most of the counters in the list. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.
For Monday, the best bet is likely to be the selling in Tata Motors. Sell level for this counter is placed very close to the current level. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Tata Motors.
Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. Bharti gained entry with the exit of Maruti. The ranking of the list had few changes. Infosys moved to the sixth position followed by ONGC and SAIL.
Bear move on Monday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the downtrend in Bharti and Infosys are likely to be terminated. Four opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. Buying in SAIL is likely to be the best for Monday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bull domination on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in SAIL.
(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)
The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.
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