Date:20/04/2005 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2005/04/20/stories/2005042009831100.htm

Opinion - News Analysis

Will French vote throw EU into turmoil?

Simon Tisdall

The European project could grind to a halt — at least temporarily.

THE FRENCH may be about to turn their backs on the European Union's constitutional treaty, but they certainly take it seriously.

La Constitution Europeenne, by the political scientist Philippe Moreau Defarges, reached number two on last week's non-fiction bestsellers' list. In Britain, by way of contrast, the Jamie's Dinners cookbook came top, followed by the Guinness Book of World Records.

British distaste for Europe's political recipes is hardly new. But the predicted French `non' in next month national referendum would be a shock, especially for the French.

Like other surveys, a poll in Le Figaro put the "oui" camp 10 points behind. Such a clear rejection by an EU founding member and self-styled guiding light would leave the treaty dead in the water. The consequences of such an outcome are incalculable. Even the U.K. Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, admits he has no idea what might happen next.

But a French thumbs down would have damaging implications for future EU integration, enlargement, the single currency and Europe's influence in the world. The European project could grind to a halt — at least temporarily.

"I don't think it would necessarily be a major crisis," said Richard Gowan of the UK-based Foreign Policy Centre. "But there would be a feeling of exhaustion, that it was time for a pause. There would be a sense of Europe turning inwards."

One racing certainty is that a no vote would spell the end for France's unpopular Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin. The interior minister, Dominique de Villepin, and the chief of the ruling UMP party, Nicolas Sarkozy, are vying for his job. Perhaps as a result, the ambitious Mr. Sarkozy is accused of not trying hard enough for a yes victory. But President Jacques Chirac's personal intervention in the campaign last week may have been counterproductive.

"The vote is not largely about the EU," a French official said. "It's about dissatisfaction with the government and with Chirac."

- Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005