Opinion - News Analysis

Violence returns to the Valley

Shujaat Bukhari

After a brief lull, attacks by militants have resumed in the Valley.

TWO DEADLY explosions in Srinagar's Jawahar Nagar and Lal Chowk areas on May 11 and 12, and a parcel bomb attack in Bijbehara have shattered the recent calm in Jammu and Kashmir. Security experts see the upsurge of violence as a reaction to the heavy losses the militant outfits suffered after the launch of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service on April 7.

April has proved costly for outfits such as the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Al Badr. According to official figures, 90 militants, including 12 top commanders, were killed during the month; particularly after the bus service was launched. The number has now risen to 115.

Officials say "this spectacular achievement" was possible because of two reasons — one, the militants were demoralised by the success of the peace process, and, two, the people were coming forward to share intelligence with the security forces. "We had more than 70 clashes with them [militants] across the State since April 7," said an Army officer.

Infiltration down

Inspector-General of Police, Kashmir zone, Javed Mukhdoomi told The Hindu that the security forces have had quite a few successful operations. Some militants who had been at large for as long as 14 years had been killed. Officials believe infiltration has come down.

According to official statistics, only 20 militants have tried to cross over in the last few months. The electrified fence along the Line of Control as well as the use of hand-held thermal imaging binoculars and motion sensors have helped. The slow snow-melt this year has allowed Indian troops to conduct more patrols in small villages and forests. Said an officer: "We are presently concentrating our operations on militants within the hinterland but at the same time keeping a tight vigil along the LoC."

But why the recent spurt in the attacks, particularly in Srinagar? "Their [militants] apparatus was a shambles for some time. Now they are regrouping and trying to cause a scare among the people," said a top official. Independent observers say militants want to prove wrong claims by the Government that the situation was changing. "They obviously would not like to be seen as a defeated lot at a time when Pakistan is singing a different tune," said a political analyst. The annual "Darbar move" when government offices shift to Srinagar from Jammu could also be the reason for the spurt in violence in the Valley.

Among the separatist leaders, hardliner Syed Ali Geelani is the only one supporting the militants.All the others have joined Pakistan in praising the peace process. Asiya Andrabi, head of the radical women's outfit, Dukhtaran-e-Millat, was recently quoted as saying: "The Pakistan Government is providing information about militants to the Government of India." Though it may be far from the truth, the statement speaks volumes about the mood in the pro-Pakistan camp in Kashmir.

Hizb supreme commander Syed Salahuddin too backtracked on his reported willingness to hold talks with New Delhi. Instead, gauging the "mood in his file and rank," he reiterated his decision to continue the "armed struggle."

Even when General Musharraf was in Delhi, the militants were at the receiving end; over a dozen were killed in encounters by security forces. Army officers admit operations based on specific information have helped them reach the real targets. Authorities say that the militants have been on the run since the beginning of the year — since January 1, 170 militants, have been killed, including 40 commanders.

Even as the pressure is maintained, the militants have struck back. They have been extremely critical of President Musharraf's policy on Kashmir, which includes confidence building measures such as opening of the Jhelum Valley Road.

They seek to register their opposition to any peace moves by carrying out focussed attacks on soft targets. For example on the Tourist Reception Centre on April 6, the car bomb explosion of May 11, and the grenade blast outside a school the following day.

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