Opinion - News Analysis

EU no-vote an opportunity for Blair

Jonathan Freedland

Optimists say events in France have left a Blair-shaped hole right at the heart of Europe.

PERHAPS TONY Blair should have a word with his travel agent. For, the Prime Minister does have the knack of taking his holidays just as major world events strike. Last Christmas, he was vacationing in Egypt when the tsunami engulfed the peoples of the Indian Ocean. This week, he was sunning himself in Tuscany when a political earthquake shook Europe.

Before May 29, no one was quite sure what result Mr. Blair wanted from France's vote on the European Constitution. Some guessed he was secretly praying the French would say no. That way he would be spared both the uphill task of persuading Britons to vote yes in their referendum next year.

Others reckoned a oui (yes) would help Mr. Blair, paving the way for a yes vote in Britain that would give him the legacy he craves and offer the perfect moment for a graceful departure, going out on a high.

Even if it was a "no" vote Mr. Blair wanted that prospect looks different now that it is a cold reality. In a month's time Britain will inherit the presidency of the European Union, and it will fall to Mr. Blair to clean up what is a very large, unpleasant mess.

Staring him in the face is a series of bad options. One is for the EU to abandon the treaty altogether and carry on as before. The trouble is, the EU's machinery is creaking. Designed when the club had 12 or 15 members, it cannot cope with a group of 25. It was to manage an enlarged Europe that the constitution was devised in the first place. Just because France has rejected the proposed solution does not mean the original problem has disappeared.

Everywhere Mr. Blair looks, he will see dead ends. And yet, in conversations on Tuesday, Downing Street folk hardly seemed distraught. If anything, they appeared rather cheery.

They now see a European stage in which Mr. Blair is the last big man standing. Jacques Chirac is mortally wounded, while Gerhard Schroeder took a drubbing in last week's German regional elections. He could be out by the autumn. Viewed through Downing Street's rose-tinted glasses, that leaves a Blair-shaped hole. He has won a vote while all around him have lost theirs.

More importantly, the optimists note, the trend in Europe is in Britain's direction. For nearly a decade, the old Franco-German motor has been stalling as both nations have struggled economically: new members have been reluctant to follow their example. Enlargement has brought in ex-communist states which prefer so-called Anglo-Saxon liberal economics to the French social model, with its statist protections and regulations.

The result has been serial defeats for France and Germany, rebuffed on their choice for commission president, rebuffed on the contents of the constitution itself — a document the French scathingly dubbed the constitution Britannique. Symbolically and most painfully for the French, the unofficial language of the corridors of Brussels is now English.

Put these two factors together, say the sunniest Brits, and what you get is an opportunity. With the EU hankering for leadership, Mr. Blair can step in and provide it. What he would do is put the constitution in the "deep freeze" and not attempt any kind of replacement or rescue effort. Instead the focus would shift, away from institutional navel-gazing — which turns off voters in their millions — and towards tangible outcomes. Europeans want to know what they get out of the EU; Mr. Blair will see his mission as giving them a practical answer.

Look, then, for a focus on the things Downing Street believes 450 million voters really care about: jobs, immigration, security. Will that mean a slew of new regulations? Not necessarily, say my informants. It could mean a campaign of advocacy, with Mr. Blair using his EU chair to make the case for all that Europe delivers. At the same time he would argue for the economic liberalisation he believes is vital for regeneration. He would tell voters in France and Germany that a social model that leaves 10 per cent unemployed is an antisocial model. "It would be taking Blairism on tour," says one source. (The PM's own team has lost no faith in his powers of persuasion.)

Even if his advocacy does work, changing attitudes takes time; to replace French anger at the EU with gratitude will take more than a year or two. Above all, it is precisely the Atlanticist, Blairite kind of economics that French voters rejected on Sunday. To suggest an increased dose will win them over is perverse. It is also fair to ask whether Mr. Blair really has the strength to do for Europe what he did to the Labour party — to turn round a doomed brand and make voters love it again. Maybe Mr. Blair could have done that once — but now? — © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

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