Our Bureau

Mumbai , June 21

THE ambitious aircraft acquisition plans announced by a clutch of Indian carriers at the Paris Air Show last week continued to reverberate through proceedings at a two-day conference on aviation and tourism investment here.

The sense of optimism was, however, tempered by a mention of the challenges posed by factors that could constrain the growth, namely, the slow development of airport infrastructure and a huge shortage of skilled man-power for the sector, including pilots, air traffic controllers, engineering and maintenance staff, and cabin crew.

According to Mr Kapil Kaul, CEO, the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, India, the early indications were that the number of aircraft in the country could more than double to 400 in the next five to seven years, from under 200 currently.

On the other hand, Boeing Corporation has forecast that the total fleet strength in the country will grow to 492 aircraft at an investment of over $36 billion over the next 20 years up to 2024.

Around 80 per cent of these aircraft would be single-aisle aircraft such as the Boeing 777 and the A-340, with a very small percentage comprising larger aircraft such as the Boeing 747, said Dr Dinesh A. Keskar, Senior Vice-President - Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Voicing concern about the ambitious acquisition plans of the new low-cost carriers, Dr Keskar said the older players such as Indian Airlines, Air India, Jet and Sahara, would be better equipped to handle the developing crunch situation, thanks to their presence in the market.

Investment flows will not be limited to the purchase of aircraft, but will pour into developing airport infrastructure as well. The airport revamp plans at Mumbai and Delhi, followed by the upgrade of the Chennai and the Kolkata airports as well as the development of a clutch of greenfield projects such as Goa, Navi Mumbai and Kannur, could entail gross investments of another $12 billion.

"We are looking at an investment of around $25 billion in the Indian aviation sector as a whole over the next five to seven years," said Mr Kaul.

Mr Peter Harbison, Managing Director, CAPA, cautioned that the shortage of skilled manpower in the industry might lead to an early slow-down in the sector. The demand for pilots, he said, would exceed supply by a factor of three in the coming years.

The shortage of skilled workers would mean higher costs for incumbents, and could slow down the expansion and route development plans of various players.

For instance, he said, the shortage of pilots had seen a 30-40 per cent jump in their salary structures.

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