Date:03/08/2005 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2005/08/03/stories/2005080300551900.htm

Back New low-pressure area advanced by a day

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Aug 2

MONDAY'S well-marked `low' over central Madhya Pradesh has weakened into a low-pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan, but the pace at which it has spun laterally across the mainland has surprised weathermen.

This was in contrast to the progressively waning circulatory motion within, and this has forced the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) to advance the forecast for the next `low' by one more day.

Disclosing this to Business Line, Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF, said a preparatory cyclonic circulation has already formed over North Bay of Bengal. Models predictions suggest that this is likely to descend, and become a low-pressure area within the next 48 hours (as early as Thursday).

Second advancement: This is the second time that this forecast has been advanced in the last two days.

Dr Gupta reiterated that the easterly flows are strong enough to hold gamely against Typhoon Matsa that has been generated over the western Pacific. It was positioned 500 nautical miles to the south of Okinawa on Tuesday afternoon (Indian time).

A Pacific typhoon in around the same latitude as the prevailing monsoon system has in the past interfered with the performance of the latter. But no direct cause-impact connection has been established yet.

The instant case will go to further prove that there is no one-to-one relationship between the two.

Meanwhile on the west coast, the offshore trough continued to be the predominant feature stretching from Konkan and Goa coast to Kerala. As in the east, the monsoon wind flow across this side is also expected to remain strong for another 4-5 days.

Trough to stay: What naturally follows is that this trough will persist throughout this period leading to fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls along Konkan and Goa, Gujarat, South East Rajasthan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada during the next 24 hours.

The heavy rainfall activity is expected to reduce thereafter. Fairly widespread rainfall is expected over East Rajasthan and scattered rainfall over West Rajasthan during next 2-3 days.

In its weather update and forecast for the next five days, the NCMRWF said Monday's well-marked `low' over the central parts of Madhya Pradesh has further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan on Tuesday afternoon. It is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken further.

More rain for Gujarat: Under its influence, most parts of Gujarat, southeast Rajasthan, northern parts of Maharashtra and west Madhya Pradesh are likely to receive fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls during next 24-48 hours.

Scattered rainfall is indicated for the north and northwest region also during the next 2-3 days. The fresh `low' brewing over the North Bay is expected to revive monsoon in the eastern parts and bring widespread rainfall activity over Orissa, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the next three days.

Towards further east and the northeast, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely during the next 3-4 days. Rainfall activity over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand may enhance.

In central India, the rainfall activity over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha is likely to enhance with chances of isolated heavy to very heavy rains in some pockets.