Date:31/08/2005 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2005/08/31/stories/2005083101341900.htm

Back Monsoon seen withdrawing from extreme west

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Aug. 30

AFTER three months of a roller-coaster performance, the southwest monsoon is preparing to withdraw from the extreme west outpost of the mainland within a few days.

Although the timing is more or less on schedule, the denouement is somewhat earlier than expected of the 2005 season that left behind a hesitant start to move into top gear mid-season and promised to end with a flourish.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said that the organisation of the anti-cyclone over northwest India early into September confirms the prospects. This high-pressure zone, which is the preferred state the atmosphere tends to get back to once freed of invading systems such as the monsoon, anchors itself deep for the long haul.

According to Dr Gupta, there are chances that the nearer northwest will get some rain towards mid-September when the fresh monsoon pulse, expectedly breaking over the south by September 6/7, reaches central India. It could just help `switch on' the Bay of Bengal engine too in the process.

On the other hand, the western disturbances that cross into the country from Pakistan can at best bring rain to extreme north Rajasthan even as they head further northeastward. No weather system, except a full-blown `low,' can take the rain belt across inland to areas from Jaisalmer in extreme northwest Rajasthan to north Gujarat.

And no `low' can hope to reach as far inland for fear of running into the massive anti-cyclone, Dr Gupta said. The best even the nearer northwest hopes to get in the next spell is the thunderstorm activity with which the monsoon is known to sign off from this region.

Break phase holds: In its weather update on Tuesday, the NCMRWF said the southwest monsoon continued to be in break phase with the seasonal monsoon trough lying close to the foothills of Himalayas. During the last 24 hours, monsoon rainfall activity has remained subdued over most parts of the country.

Monday's upper air cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area persisted. The upper air cyclonic circulation over south interior Karnataka and neighbourhood lay over southeast Tamil Nadu and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal. These systems are likely to cause moderate rainfall activity over south peninsular India during the next two days.

The anti-cyclonic circulation at 3.1 km above mean sea level over the northwest is likely to persist for the next 4-5 days. Under its influence, the region is likely to witness mainly dry weather situation.