THE PRIME MINISTER, Dr Manmohan Singh's suggestion that the country's negotiators in Geneva — working on a draft declaration acceptable to all parties for the December Hong Kong ministerial of the World Trade Organisation — should adopt a balanced approach to the contentious issues before them is welcome in view of the sharp differences across the negotiating table. What this means is that New Delhi should be prepared to make compromises in the interest of a successful Hong Kong ministerial, which is certain to have a bearing on the fate of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations.

However, Dr Manmohan Singh has also made it clear that certain areas of Indian trade policy should be closely protected during the negotiations. These include the exclusion of subsidised exports from the developed countries and the opening of foreign markets to burgeoning services exports from India. Incidentally, there is a acknowledgement of India's pre-eminent position in the services sector, as reflected in the recent acceptance by the 15-nation core group on services of the `issue paper' prepared by New Delhi. The paper aims to provide a structure and a focus for the issues to be taken up at Hong Kong so that there is an effective package at the end of the Doha Round.

But, of course, services is not one of the sectors on which agreement is essential for the negotiations to make any headway. Agriculture and market access for non-agricultural products (NAMA) are far more important and it remains to be seen whether the Indian team is successful in getting Washington and Brussels to arrive at a middle-ground acceptable to both the rich and the poor countries. But the outlook is bleak because the gap between the G-20 group, led by Brazil, India, and China, and the US and EU is far too wide. Moreover, Brussels has gone on record that any further concessions it may decide to make on the farm front will depend wholly on the developing economies allowing greater access on the non-agricultural market front, about which Dr Manmohan Singh has cautioned the Indian negotiators.

The next step in Geneva is to be taken shortly with new proposals being put before a meeting of the five interested parties (FIPs) — India, Brazil, Australia, the US and EU. It remains to be seen if the new positions will end the stalemate in the talks, but it is clear that the struggle will be intense, both between the developed and the developing groups and within the former group. Differences have cropped up within the EU, with Paris cautioning Brussels of diluting the European stand further in consultation with Washington. There is also tremendous pressure on the US Administration and the EU Commission from domestic lobbies arguing that big concessions have been made to accommodate the trading partners and that more would harm the interests of European and American farmers. And, yet, a lowering of export subsidies for farmers, to take only one issue on the table, is a sine qua non for progress in the negotiations and if the trigger for concessions by the poor is to be activated. To an extent this may save the Hong Kong meeting and the Doha Round.

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