Date:04/11/2005 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2005/11/04/stories/2005110401431000.htm

Back Pepper production likely to fall by 30 pc

G.K. Nair

Kochi , Nov. 3

PEPPER production in the country is estimated to fall by 30 per cent in the next season due to the negative impact of the heavy south-west monsoon rains this year.

According to trade estimates, it would be around 50,000 tonnes next year against an estimated 70,000 tonnes in 2005.

Because of the incessant heavy rains, pollination did not take place; as a result, the spikes are not full and berry formation is less and scattered, according to growers in Wayanad and Idukki districts of Kerala. In the southern districts of the State, the growers said the production would be less by 50 per cent.

The situation in pepper plantations in Karnataka is also not different, trading sources told Business Line.

According to earlier international reports, production in other major producing countries is likely to be less. Against a projected demand of 2,16,000 tonnes in 2005, the quantity available for export from all the producing countries would add up to 1,71,900 tonnes, according to a market review for 2005 by the Brazilian Pepper Trade Board.

The report also said the total world consumption of pepper in 2005 has been estimated at 3,41,500 tonnes, including 1,23,500 tonnes by the producing countries.

Production in Vietnam, the world's top producer of pepper, is estimated to be around 86,000 tonnes, of which 79,000 tonnes would be available for export, the report said.

The reasons attributed to the decline in the supply position are potential drop in Vietnam production by 20 per cent in 2005 and production loss in other countries.

Vietnam had a better crop in 2004 and hence, the crop this year, as a natural phenomenon, should have to be less, it said. Added to this, the weather conditions were not favourable for the crop, while the growers have been neglecting the plants due to low prices and high inputs cost, leading to a drop in yield.

Production in Indonesia is also likely to drop as many growers have shifted to other more remunerative cash crops from pepper because of the continuous decline in prices. In many areas the farmers have replaced pepper with oil palm, cocoa and rubber.

In Brazil, most of the pepper vines are senile/exhausted, needing replanting/replenishment, which is said to be not taking place because of the poor return from the sales of the produce. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, the high cost of production due to increased input costs reported to have forced the farmers to shift to other crops.

Meanwhile, according to International Pepper Community (IPC) pepper exports (black and white combined) during January-August 2005 had shown a decline of 16 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Total exports up to August 2005 had dropped to 1,22,230 tonnes from 1,45,515 tonnes in January-August 2004. Indonesian exports had recorded the highest ever decline of 41 per cent, followed by Brazil (15 per cent) and Vietnam (13 per cent).

Conversely, exports from Sri Lanka went up by 30 per cent, India by six per cent, and Malaysia by three per cent.

According to the IPC, exports from Vietnam are likely to be less by an estimated 10,000 tonnes due to decline in 2005 production.

Usually, black pepper constitutes 85 per cent of total pepper exports. Black pepper exports stood at 1,03,869 tonnes in January-August 2005 against 1,28,484 tonnes in the same period last year, a decline of 18 per cent.

In contrast, there was a seven per cent increase in white pepper exports during the same period. Total white pepper exports went up from 17,031 tonnes in January-August 2004 to 18,361 tonnes in 2005.