Date:04/02/2006 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/02/04/stories/2006020403241900.htm

Back Warm weather anomaly may recede in a few days

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Feb. 3

THE dry and anomalously warm weather prevailing in large parts of the country persisted on Friday with extreme south peninsular India, where isolated rains are indicated, proving the sole exception.

Most parts continue to witness appreciably above-normal day and night temperatures, Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said.

But the NCMRWF maintained its outlook for falling trends in both the day and night temperatures over northwest and central India in the medium term, which is expected to bring the mercury level to its seasonal normal.

While this trend is expected to hold for the next two to three days, indications are that the northeast may also be heading for cooler climes with daytime temperatures heading South from Saturday and night temperatures from Tuesday.

The NCMRWF maintained that a fresh western disturbance is likely to approach the northwest the same day, which may cause isolated rainfall/snowfall in the hilly regions. As a result, slight rise in night temperatures has been indicated for the region for the following few days.

But the western disturbance season have not ended yet, Dr Gupta said, negating stray reports to the contrary. Extra-tropical wave activity (of which western disturbances are an off-shoot) is still very much active on a global scale. Only the amplitude can vary, with implications for their relative capacity to create a weather event in the north and northwest.

Meanwhile, the NCMRWF has forecast isolated rain/thundershowers on Saturday and Sunday for south Tamil Nadu and parts of the northeast, viz. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

In other region-wise forecasts, the NCMRWF said day and night temperatures in the North and the Northwest are expected to fall by two to four deg Celsius over the during next two to three days. The approaching western disturbance is likely to cause isolated rain/snowfall in the hilly regions beginning Tuesday.

Eastern India is likely to experience mainly dry weather during the next five days except for the rain activity indicated for specified areas over the next two days. The region may experience fall in day temperatures beginning as early as from Saturday night temperatures Tuesday onwards.

Mainly dry weather is likely to prevail in central India. Slight fall in both day and night temperatures (of the order of two to three deg Celsius) is expected during the next two to three days.

In the South, isolated rain is likely in south Tamil Nadu during the next two days. The remaining parts in the region are likely to experience mainly dry weather conditions.

In the West, mainly dry weather is expected to prevail with day and night temperatures expectedly falling by two to four deg Celsius over the next three days.