Back The on-again, off-again nuclear deal
Rasheeda Bhagat
These gentlemen make appearances before mediapersons and try to placate the powerful Left leaders, at whose pleasure the UPA government remains in the saddle.
The first issue on which the Left is upping the ante is the Manmohan Singh government's decision to go along with the Permanent 5 on voting against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency Board meet in Vienna last fortnight. What rankles the Left parties the most is that, at the core of India's decision is the pressure from the US, which has hardly disguised the link between how India votes on Iran and the access it will get to American nuclear technology for its civilian nuclear programmes.
Dr Singh might mouth the "national interest" mantra from all platforms but the US has made it clear — first, through its Ambassador in New Delhi and later through its Secretary of State, Ms Condoleeza Rice — that if India does not fall in line with the US "national interest" on the Iran vote, its civilian nuclear programmes would be in jeopardy.
What the US Ambassador in India, Mr David Mulford, has said on the issue is only too well known. Not so well known is that in an interview to Reuters on January 26, Ms Rice had said that India had "difficult choices" to make before the Indo-US nuclear deal could go through.
Without spelling out these "difficult choices" she had said: "In order to move on to a new phase in which civil nuclear power would be available to India, India has to make some difficult choices." Significantly, the vote at the IAEA was barely a few days away when she said this.
India, of course, fell in line and, despite warnings from the Left and some of the more-secular-than-thou parties, such as the Samajwadi Party, voted in favour of referring the Iran issue to the Security Council.
If politics was not about unexpected turns and twists where old foes suddenly emerge as new friends, one would have been surprised at the RSS turning out to pat the UPA government on its back for voting against Iran. Appearing pleased as punch, the RSS spokesman, Mr Ram Madhav, said that the Sangh was happy with the UPA Government's stand on the issue, but the impression that it did so to please the US should not be created. It also made no bones about why it was supporting the Centre on this issue; "It is not in our interest to have more nuclear powers in our vicinity," he clarified helpfully.
Of course neither he, nor the Indian government, nor the superpower called the US could do anything about our belligerent neighbour Pakistan — which is certainly in "our vicinity" and which will certainly not apply any nuclear weapons "in our interest" — developing the bomb. Much worse, it exported some of its bomb-making technology to Teheran!
This googly from the RSS, it appears, has derailed the BJP's line of thinking till now, which had made it attack the UPA government for allowing the US to dictate our foreign policy. Also, with the Left parties making it clear that while they will do all they can to rock the UPA boat and press for a vote on the Iran issue in Parliament, so that the nation knows where the different political parties stand on this issue, but will not, for the moment, destabilise the UPA, the sting has gone out of the BJP's criticism of India's stance against Iran.
If the Left is going to dish out only thunder and fury "that signifies nothing", and the BJP has to sit it out in the Opposition for another three years, it might as well take a stand that services the party's best interest.
And, at the moment, when the party is not even in power, it would be unproductive to take a stance in favour of an Islamic nation — the RSS thinking on this aspect is clear enough — at the risk of deepening the furrows on the face of Uncle Sam.
So, it appears, the leaders of the Party, which till yesterday was thundering on about the perils of bowing to the Americans' demand of putting up our fast reactors for their scrutiny, have gone into a huddle to rethink this line and perhaps come out with something that doesn't sound as though it has come from its bete noir, the Left!
While these political manoeuvres and games go on, and both the BJP and the Left parties sharpen their claws for the Budget session of Parliament that convenes on February 16, Iran continues to be defiant. For its firebrand President, Mr Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the totally unnecessary cartoons of Prophet Mohammed, carried by a Danish publication first and reproduced by some European publications later, have come as a handy weapon to call for violent protests against the "Islam-hating" Western powers.
Iran continues to be defiant on continuing its nuclear programme and, as though the uncertainty and chaos in the world, were not enough, a British publication has carried a report that the US has finalised plans to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities if it does not "co-operate" with the UN and adequately address the global community's concerns on its nuclear designs.
That would certainly be a feather in the US cap when it comes to adding one more turbulent country to the league of nations.
But returning to the core issue of whether our deal with the US on getting its nuclear technology for our civilian programmes remains on or off, now that the Left parties have stepped up their resolve to challenge the UPA government on this issue, even as US diplomats engage in undiplomatic stand-offs, there are indications that the UPA Government might suddenly switch course.
When push comes to shove, it might have to decide what is more important for it — to allow its government a smooth passage through its remaining term or, quite unnecessarily, hold out the red rag to the Left parties, for the sake of a nuclear energy programme that may or may not get Uncle Sam's blessing without extracting a heavy price.
(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)
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