Date:25/02/2006 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2006/02/25/stories/2006022505381100.htm

Opinion - News Analysis

Russia keen on ending stalemate on Iran

Vladimir Radyuhin

There are indications that the agenda of the Russian-Iranian talks has been substantially expanded.

RUSSIA AND IRAN began another round of talks on ending the standoff over Iran's nuclear programme in Teheran on Friday. Meanwhile, efforts are gathering momentum to avoid reporting Iran to the United Nations Security Council at a crucial March 6 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency board.

Russia's Rosatom atomic energy agency chief Sergei Kiriyenko left for Teheran on Thursday, just three days after an Iranian delegation discussed the issue in Moscow.

Following Iran's decision to break off talks with the European Union's "troika" — Britain, France, and Germany — earlier this week, the talks between Russia and Iran offer the last chance of reaching a compromise that would enable Iran to develop atomic energy and dispel international concerns about its nuclear weapons ambitions.

There are indications that the agenda of the talks, initially confined to a Russian proposal to enrich uranium for Iran on Russian soil, has been substantially expanded.

Commenting on the Moscow round of talks on February 20-21, Iran's negotiator Ali Hosseini-Tash said the "positive and constructive," discussions had gone beyond the possible creation of an enrichment joint venture.

"We talked about the principles of a common formula and reached an agreement on those principles," Mr. Hosseini-Tash told Iranian television.

Echoing his remarks, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said the enrichment offer was just one of "several proposals" that could be finalised.

"The Russian proposal should be reviewed in a larger context. We had good talks in our recent negotiations," Mr. Larijani was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

Moscow has made it absolutely clear to Teheran that any compromise solution must be based on Iran's commitment to stop uranium enrichment. This is the consolidated position of Russia, the EU, and the United States. Therefore the "larger context" and the "common formula" for a possible deal probably involve some sweeteners to make Iran swallow the bitter pill.

The fact that Russia is being represented at the talks by its atomic energy chief points to one such sweetener — a possible offer to build 5, 10 or even 15 atomic power reactors in addition to the one Russia has constructed at Bushehr.

Experts said Iran may also be offered the right to conduct initial uranium conversion, while the enrichment as such will be done in Russia.

Moscow has also indicated it may accept Teheran's demand to set a time frame for the operation of a joint venture to enrich uranium on Russian soil. This would imply that if Teheran within the specified time succeeds in persuading the world it has no plans to build an atomic bomb, it will gain the right to have the full nuclear energy cycle, including enrichment.

Alternatively, the full enrichment process may be set up on Iranian soil, but under the control of a consortium of other countries.

Russia may also offer Iran advanced anti-missile systems and other weapons that will boost its security. Moscow in December 2005 signed a deal for the sale of nearly 30 Tor-M1 close-range air-defence missile systems to Teheran, and reports said the two sides were discussing the sale of the long-range S-300 air-defence systems.

If the scope of the proposed deal is indeed expanded, discussion of details may require more time than it left before the March 6 meeting of IAEA board. In such a case, readiness to postpone referral of Iran to the U.N. Security Council will be a litmus test of the international community's willingness to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis.