Opinion - Editorials

Australia's uranium dilemma

At the end of his three-day visit to India, Australian Prime Minister John Howard may well find he has more homework to do when he gets back than he did to prepare for the visit. Weighing on his mind will be the forceful request from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for the supply of uranium to India's nuclear power plants. After winning President George Bush's support for the resumption of civilian nuclear cooperation, Dr. Singh did lean on Mr. Howard for supplies of uranium, and received from his guest an untypical, wavering reply. Mr. Howard, one of Australia's long serving Prime Ministers, obviously cannot resolve this issue easily. His country holds almost 40 per cent of the world's reserves of uranium, yet it does not have a single nuclear power generation plant. All the uranium it mines is exported, but guided by a policy first outlined in 1977, this can go only to countries that have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. India clearly does not qualify under this policy as a customer.

Mr. Howard realises that Mr. Bush and Dr. Singh have woven a clever deal that could well confer on India, a nuclear weapon state outside the NPT framework, the privileges of a signatory. The United States as well as other members of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group could well make a constructive exception for India. But Mr. Howard knows his country and its politics are different and difficult. Australian voters have been hypersensitive to nuclear proliferation. A recent opinion poll on the proposed sale of uranium to China showed more than half of the respondents were against it even though China is a signatory to the NPT and therefore an eligible buyer. At the other end of the scale are large uranium mining companies in Australia which sense that the entry of China and India to the club could dramatically expand their market, indeed treble it by 2020, according to one estimate. With global uranium prices likely to rise sharply as demand increases, the companies see substantial profit ahead. For the moment none of them has suggested they want the official line moved, but their influence on their Government cannot be underestimated. With national elections a year away, Mr. Howard will have to evaluate his political and economic cards. Does he cling on to the old NPT-or-nothing policy, ignore India's reasoned request, and risk losing the chance to participate fully as the new Bush-led nuclear game unfolds? Or does he borrow a leaf from Mr. Bush's book and attempt a clever reformulation of the guiding principles so that he can squeeze India across the fence? By constituting a joint group to study the Indo-U.S. deal, Mr. Howard has bought himself time to think. He would be first to acknowledge that the economic and political realities of the day are different from the ones in which the guiding principles were framed. Will he be able to break free?

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