Rasheeda Bhagat

"Talks about IT, for example, is for the consumption of some people... My understanding of the Bihar economy is such that these things will not make much difference."

DR PRABHAT P. GHOSH, DIRECTOR, ASIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE, PATNA

The social justice factor continues to be crucial in Bihar and the Nitish Kumar Government cannot afford to slip up on that, says Dr Prabhat P. Ghosh, Director of the Patna-based Asian Development Research Institute. Mr Nitish Kumar will have to "function on two grounds; the ground on which the previous government survived and the ground on which it failed," he told Business Line.

Excerpts from the interview:

Are things finally on the move in Bihar?

The most positive indicator is that after a long time the Bihar Government presented a full Budget. It always used to be a Vote on Account, which is done only when the government is new, or an election is due. But in Bihar this had become the norm.

How was the Budget?

Very ambitious; one big problem is revenue mobilisation. The tax-GDP ratio in India is very low at 15 per cent, so States have huge debts. We are no exception. Though States like Maharashtra have larger debts, they are rich and in a crisis they have some space to manoeuvre and pay the dues. That is not the case with us.

What should be the priority sectors in Bihar's development?

The standard sectors — bijli, sadak, pani (power, roads, water). Then there is the poverty alleviation programme and rural employment. Under the Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme of the Centre, only 23 districts of Bihar were covered, but the Nitish Government has put in additional money to cover all the 38 districts.

Isn't unemployment a huge problem in Bihar?

Very huge. But we have an advantage here; additional investment in sectors such as steel or IT do not bring a corresponding increase in employment. But the only sector you can make additional income here is agriculture. In agriculture, a 10 per cent increase in the gross sown area will result in a 10 per cent increase in employment. Part of the increase will be because of additional inputs such as fertilisers, water and seeds. The government is taking an additional loan of Rs 6,500 crore and I hope that is utilised properly.

Why hasn't more effort been put into agriculture in Bihar?

The most important reason is that this has been a permanent settlement area.

Will creation of more employment result in less violence?

Yes, any development is a safety net against crime and extremism.

But despite the poverty and distress, one hasn't read about farmers committing suicide here as in Andhra and Karnataka...

For two reasons, our agriculture is not that vulnerable to drought. Second, in parts of Andhra Pradesh, farmer suicide have happened in commercial cotton, where you need to take huge loans. In Bihar 95 per cent of the gross cropped area is foodgrains. So the distress level or vulnerability is not there.

In the last 10 years however troublesome the political system, the agri economy did not perform badly. People forget that; even in the 1990s Bihar was able to register the highest drop in poverty ratio... between 1993-94 and 2000 it fell 12 percentage points.

Agriculture is already on the move, though it is not a very buoyant, as in West Bengal; something that enhances the purchasing power of local people and that brings in industry and investment. So unless the local purchasing power grows, we can't expect much to happen.

And how do you grow that purchasing power?

Again, by going to agriculture. Plus we also have substantial animal husbandry sector; maintenance of livestock is easier because the vegetation is wide. Livestock accounts for one-fifth of the rural income. There is no problem in selling milk if the farmer is able to produce it.

How is the milk co-operative movement working in Bihar?

Sudha co-operative has made a success of it. There is scope for enlarging it without any additional investment. You just have to organise the marketing part, as Amul did. It told the farmers, "you produce the milk, don't bother where to sell, we'll come to your door and collect it".

Is that happening here?

For some farmers... But the scope is enormous in Bihar.

Has the CM got his sights on all this?

Yes.

What kind of a difference has he made already?

Four months is too soon to judge.

Has the law and order situation improved, kidnappings come down?

Kidnapping has become an organised activity and once that happens it gets a strength of its own. It's the same story in Mumbai. But the Mumbai police are very competent and yet they can't stop it altogether because of the mafia. The same here, but it has come down.

How do you see Mr Lalu Prasad's role? He may not have won but he put in a credible performance. Can you write him off?

The question does not arise. Even in the last election, his vote share did not go down. The concept, or slogan, of social justice is very strong here. And this government has to stick to that. If any of its moves gives the impression that it is not appreciative of this factor, it will have to pay a heavy price for it. But Nitish knows this only too well. In the coming Panchayat elections he has gone one step ahead by reserving 21 per cent seats for MBCs. To the extent that this slogan was first seriously pursued by Lalu Prasad he cannot have a quick political death.

So he will be waiting for a wrong move...

This Government has to function on two grounds; the ground on which the previous government survived and the ground on which it failed. Nitish has to keep both these objectives in mind. He is a grassroots politicians and he knows the intricacies of Bihar politics.

So his task is more difficult?

Yes, both the underprivileged and the better-off sections are looking up to him. He has the unenviable position of leading a coalition of extremes. The social classes that constitute the coalition he leads are not a very homogenous group as it was earlier. The BJP is associated with the upper and privileged classes and the OBCs and the MBCs have their own demands.

What about communal tension? Mr Lalu Prasad had controlled that. Will it surface with the BJP a part of the government?

No, no. This is a wrong impression... The BJP will not go for that kind of strategy when it is in power. Gujarat was an exception. There is no communal problem here and this Government won't do anything to trigger it.

So is there finally a sense of hope in Bihar?

The top people are hopeful, but the deprived sing a song of hopelessness. People who come from the rural areas indicate this. Even if this Government functions, the initiatives it takes in Patna will take a long time to percolate to the interior.

There is also the issue of the social background and competence of the ministers. Howsoever strong politically a minister might be, it does not necessarily mean he has the capability of a civil servant. Of course, it was worse in the previous government.

Are the Bihar police equipped to deal with the massive law and order problem?

The Bihar bureaucracy is seriously handicapped in terms of size of personnel, working facilities, experience and competence. Competence and experience are two different things. If I've not worked for 10 years, my competence is not fine-tuned by experience; I might be a brilliant engineer but if I've not built a road for 20 years, of what use is my brilliance?

What about shoring up the public health sector?

That will be difficult. Many of the doctors come from powerful families; the teachers might fall in line, but not the doctors.

What about criminalisation of politics and the growing threat from Naxals and Maoists?

On this front Nitish's utterances do not inspire confidence among the Maoist groups. Lalu Prasad had a better record in that. There are two ways to tackle this problem, by force or through development and dialogue. A good chief minister will make a combination of both. I don't think he (Mr Nitish Kumar) has made any statement in the last four months that inspires confidence.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

© Copyright 2000 - 2009 The Hindu Business Line