Opinion - News Analysis

Biggest crisis for Bush as poll ratings slide

Paul Harris— © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

A White House shake-up is just the beginning as George W. Bush's party fights to keep control of Congress.

— Photo: AP

PUBLIC ANGER: More than 500 protesters beat drums and called for President George W. Bush's resignation on Friday at Stanford University during a protest against his visit to the campus.

GEORGE W. BUSH'S second term is facing its biggest crisis as new polls show a continuing collapse in support and White House insiders expect more staff resignations over the next few days and weeks.

Rumours are swirling around Washington, focussing on some of the most senior members of Mr. Bush's team from Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to White House counsel Harriet Miers. At the same time, polls show that Mr. Bush's popularity has sunk to an all-time low, leaving Republican operatives panicking about the vital mid-term Congressional elections in November. A Fox News poll released last week showed Mr. Bush's approval rating at 33 per cent, while a new Pew poll had him at 35 per cent.

Last week also saw a dramatic reshuffle among White House staff as press spokesman Scott McClellan resigned and political guru Karl Rove had his political responsibilities sharply reduced. The changes came after Mr. Bush brought in Joshua Bolten as a new chief of staff to replace Bush loyalist Andrew Card.

Mr. Bolten has wasted no time in cleaning house, responding to long-standing calls from top Republicans to reshuffle staff. Senior Republican sources say Mr. Bolten sent out a message to all staff last Monday telling them that if they were thinking of resigning this year, then they should do so now. "That got a lot of people thinking," one party source said.

Sources said the resignations are far from over. "There is a guarantee that there is more to come," said one. Some may even be officials close to the heart of Mr. Bush's tight-knit inner circle. Mr. Rumsfeld has been the target of concerted criticism by prominent former generals who have demanded that he resigns over the conduct of the war in Iraq. At the same time Ms. Miers was mentioned as another possible casualty. If Ms. Miers were to leave it would be a spectacular fall from grace for a woman who last year was put forward as a nominee for the Supreme Court.

It would also see yet another of one of Mr. Bush's closest Texas confidants leave the White House. There has been a dramatic "deTexasing" of the administration. Mr. McClellan, Mr. Rove, and Ms. Miers all came with Mr. Bush to Washington from Texas. The reshuffle has been a reversal for a President who places a high value on sticking by his own officials. It is widely believed that neither Mr. Card nor Mr. McClellan wanted to go.

Yet it is the stripping of Mr. Rove's powers that has sent the biggest shockwaves around Washington's political establishment. Mr. Rove has been one of Mr. Bush's closest advisers throughout his career and was given a wide-ranging policy brief in the wake of 2004's election victory.

But the key elements of Mr. Bush's second term have all failed. In less than 18 months, Mr. Bush's team has gone from proclaiming a conservative revolution in domestic politics to fighting a rearguard action aimed simply at keeping hold of Congress.

Mr. Bush had led a high-profile effort to reform social security, simplify and reduce the tax code, and restructure illegal immigration. The aim was to create a small government "ownership society" in direct opposition to the big government liberal "great society" notions of Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s.

Now, however, that dream lies in ruins. As Johnson's presidency foundered on the Vietnam war, so the conflict in Iraq is increasingly starting to resemble a millstone around Mr. Bush's version of Republicanism. In the Fox News poll almost half of the respondents said that Iraq was the reason they disapproved of Mr. Bush. The study also showed Mr. Rumsfeld's approval ratings at a record low of 35 per cent. Now the Republican strategy is simply to abandon policy goals in favour of fighting hard to keep control of Congress. Mr. Rove has been put in charge of that effort, sacrificing ideological ambitions in favour of old-fashioned campaign organising.

Palpable panic

The panic in Republican circles is palpable but the Democrats will face a tough fight. They too have been caught up in corruption scandals and boundary changes to many voting districts make unseating incumbent politicians difficult. "There is a lot to fight for on both sides and neither will find it easy," said Larry Haas, a former aide in the Clinton White House.

Yet the potential benefits for Democrats are huge if they can win control of one of the Houses of Congress. It would mean that they could start heading investigative committees. Those committees would be armed with the power of legal subpoena and could take aim at a series of scandals from pre-war intelligence in Iraq to the fallout from Hurricane Katrina. That could lay a strong basis for launching hits against the Republicans in the run up to the 2008 presidential elections.

"Bush has truly become the Republican equivalent of Jimmy Carter, out of control, dropping in popularity, unable to resume command," thundered Dick Morris in the usually Bush-friendly New York Post.

Yet for all the expected upheavals, Mr. Bush's closest inner circle — which includes Vice-President Dick Cheney, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice — remains intact. Many also believe that Mr. Rumsfeld will ride out the political storm.

"Rumsfeld will be safe. Bush is not going to listen to criticism about him. He has taken the decision to stand by him whatever happens," said Larry Johnson, a defence expert and former senior CIA official.

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