Catch the various aspects of exit poll which is basically "an estimate of public opinion on certain candidates or issues that is made by questioning a representative sample of voters as they leave their voting places."

EXIT POLLS, enter reality.

Exit poll is much in the news. "TN registers record 65 per cent vote. Exit polls bring smile," says Asian Tribune, Thailand. "Chandy dismisses exit poll results," reported media about the Kerala situation. "Exit Poll: West Bengal goes Red again," predicts CNN-IBN. "Bulgarian association to conduct exit poll at by-elections," says AzerTag, Azerbaijan, about the `Free Elections and Democracy Civic Initiative'.

What is an exit poll? "Noun. A poll taken (as by news media) of voters leaving the voting place that is usually used for predicting the winners," defines Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary. "Poll conducted by asking people how they voted as they leave the voting place, designed to give an early indication of the result of an election," says Encarta, in an entry that is sandwiched between `exit permit' and `exit strategy'.

Exit poll is "an estimate of public opinion on certain candidates or issues that is made by questioning a representative sample of voters as they leave their voting places," according to www.wordsmyth.net. "A poll taken of a small percentage of voters as they leave the polls, used to forecast the outcome of an election or determine the reasons for voting decisions," says www.infoplease.com.

AN EARLY INDICATION

"Unlike an opinion poll, which asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks who the voter actually voted for," distinguishes Wikipedia. "Pollsters — usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters — conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days to count."

Pollsters use exit poll information, collected from a small percentage of voters, "to track and project how all voters or specific segments of the voters sided on a particular race or ballot measure," explains www.cnn.com in a page about the last US Presidential elections. It tabulates responses from 13,660 people according to age, race, income, gender, education, ideology, religion and so forth, under three columns, viz. Bush, Kerry and Nader.

Historically, and universally, exit polls have served as `parallel vote tabulation' and `as a check against and rough indicator of the degree of fraud in an election,' points out http://en.wikipedia.org. "Some examples of this include the Venezuelan recall referendum, 2004, the Ukrainian presidential election, 2004, and the 2004 US presidential election controversy."

FROM PIGEONS TO COMPUTERS

On www.hsph.harvard.edu, catch up with a PowerPoint file dated March 6, and titled `Exit polls: their history, methodology and future,' by Kathleen A. Frankovic, Director of Surveys, CBS News. "Reporting results quickly has always been important, both to reduce electoral uncertainty and to outshine competitors. News media have used available technologies, from carrier pigeons to computers," states the opening slide.

Even before TV, there have been exit polls. Examples that Frankovic offers are: "1840's: Same day voting, the telegraph and the AP; 1883: Boston Globe's key precincts; 1900: Streetlights and stereopticons; 1916: Reporting early: The Wilson-Hughes election; and 1920: The emergence of radio."

`Exit Polls: What You Should Know,' is a posting dated November 2, 2004, on www.mysterypollster.com, `Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling — By Mark Blumenthal'. "Despite the occasional controversies, exit polls remain among the most sophisticated and reliable political surveys available. They will offer an unparalleled look at today's voters in a way that would be impossible without quality survey data," he writes.

THE METHODOLOGY

Take a look at the `methodology statement' on www.ropercenter.uconn.edu, about the 2002 exit poll by VNS (Voter News Service). "The samples were selected in two stages. First, a probability sample of voting precincts within each state was selected that represents the different geographic areas across the state and the vote by party," it explains. "Precincts were selected with a probability proportionate to the number of voters in each precinct. Each voter in a state had the same chance to have his or her precinct selected." The second stage was that within each precinct, "voters were sampled systematically throughout the voting day at a rate that gives all voters in a precinct the same chance of being interviewed."

Disappointingly, though, on November 5, 2002 VNS cited dissatisfaction with its exit poll analysis and said it would not release any `national surveys of voter attitudes' on election night that year, as learnt from http://archives.cnn.com. "VNS said the data it was collecting from exit polls was `not being properly analysed by the organisation's new computer system' developed after the 2000 election debacle when various news organisations projected Democrat Al Gore the winner, then retreated from that statement," reads a snatch from the CNN story.

LOGISTICAL CHALLENGE

Exit polls can fail. "The biggest challenge to exit polls is logistical: How to transmit all the results to a central location quickly and accurately," observed Blumenthal in his 2004 article. But developments in technology come handy for the purpose. Not to miss is info on www.exit-poll.net, about Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, which conduct the official exit polls for all 50 states in 2004.

There can be variations in the methodology adopted by different exit polls. Like all opinion polls, exit polls do by nature include a margin of error, points out Wikipedia. "A famous example of exit poll error occurred in the 1992 UK General Election, when two exit polls predicted a hung parliament. In the event, the Conservative Party Government under John Major held their position with a reduced majority."

Error, however, may be the last thing on the mind of those who read or view exit poll findings. For instance, "Traffic deluge on election day — 36 million page views... spreading democracy?" is a grab from Frankovic's presentation.

PUNISHABLE REVELATION

"Some countries, such as the UK, punish the publication of exit poll figures before the polling stations have closed as a criminal offence, while others, such as New Zealand and Singapore, ban them altogether," educates http://en.wikipedia.org.

Closer home, a PIL (public interest litigation) pending before the apex court since 2004 PIL (public interest seeks the laying down of guidelines or regulations relating to opinion and exit polls.

On May 5, the Supreme Court declined to entertain "an application seeking to restrain media from publishing or airing opinion and exit polls for election to Kerala assembly," reports www.zeenews.com.

Let's wrap with a visit to www.eci.gov.in, the site of the Election Commission of India, where you can find the 820-page `Compendium of Instructions on Conduct of Elections', with apparently no mention about the phrase in question. However, a meeting of political parties convened in April 2004 was of the view that that opinion and exit polls have the effect of influencing the minds of the electors. "The unanimous opinion was that results of opinion polls should not be allowed to be published or made public from the date of notification of an election."

Wonder if there are any takers for such an idea that can go against the grain of making democracy exciting, and democratising excitement!

ZeroBase@TheHindu.co.in

D. Murali

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