Opinion - Editorials

Republicans in trouble

After the United States President, George W. Bush, won re-election in 2004, the Republican party believed it had a good chance of preserving its majorities in the two Houses of Congress over the next few electoral cycles. This did not appear a formidable task at that time. Given the polarisation between Red and Blue States, the Grand Old Party appeared comfortably placed to retain the 55 to 45 seat edge it currently has in the Senate. Over the years, the constituencies of the House of Representatives have been so redrawn as to give incumbents a clear advantage. So the Republicans had reason to believe their opponents would not be able to close the 30-seat gap in the lower chamber — they currently hold 231 seats, the Democrats 201, while one seat is occupied by an independent, and two are vacant. Political analysts were of the opinion that such a pattern of seat distribution was likely to endure unless there was a dramatic change in the mood of the electorate. Such a change does appear to have occurred over the past few months. According to recent opinion polls, only 65 per cent of those who voted to re-elect the President are likely to vote for his party's candidates in the 2006 Congressional election; the rest say they will either vote Democratic or abstain. In contrast, 80 per cent of those who supported John F. Kerry in the presidential election are likely to vote for candidates belonging to his party. This turnaround is not surprising given the poor image the GOP's Congressional contingent has projected over the past 18 months. Leading Republicans were involved in a series of corruption scandals; the bickering between fiscal conservatives and other sections of the party came out into the open; and leading right-wing theorists have rebelled against the party's policies.

Political analysts believe the Republicans are also being dragged down by Mr. Bush's plunging popularity. According to the latest opinion polls, about 47 per cent of voters vehemently disapprove of the President's performance in office as against 20 per cent who approve. If this trend holds until Election Day in November, the Democrats will be clear favourites. The Republicans draw some comfort from the historical record, which shows that voters focus on constituency-specific issues in elections to the House. They also believe Democrats have not been able to pick strong candidates in sufficient numbers to upset the composition of either chamber. Voter preferences could also change as the various contestants shift gear into campaign mode. However, the GOP might well be whistling in the dark. There are few signs that the electorate is likely to forget or forgive the Bush administration's record of incompetence in matters such as the handling of the aftermath of the hurricanes. Above all, the worsening military quagmire of Iraq is likely to have an adverse impact on the Republicans' prospects.

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