Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , June 22

The revived monsoon pulse covered new grounds on a day when the prospects looked good for the sustenance of rainfall activity over the peninsula and the contiguous north and east for the next five days.

"The best thing is that there is a pulse, though weak, to contend with, whose kinetic energy and moisture content are holding firm. This is enough to sustain the circulation during the medium term," said Dr L.S. Rathore of the National Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Weather models are also predicting two significant changes in prevailing weather features, which go to support the overall monsoon circulation. One, shifting away of the north-westerly flows, and two, possible formation of a monsoon `low' over west-central Bay of Bengal.

Anomalous north-westerlies have been impeding the monsoonal flows, which have not still been able to settle into the ideal westerly to south-westerly pattern. The result is that the main monsoonal flows have been directed to the south of the peninsular tip towards Sri Lanka. The flows are just about becoming orderly over the Thiruvananthapuram latitude.

This has had a cascading effect on the flows reaching the Bay of Bengal as well. They must settle into being south-westerly to set up a low-pressure area over the ocean. Shifting of the impeding winds should set right the anomaly and promote the prospects for a monsoon-friendly `low' by early next week. This alone can take monsoon into Central and Northwest India.

An NCMRWF forecast said model predictions suggest that the cross equatorial flow is likely to strengthen during the two to three days. Conditions are favourable for the advancement of monsoon into remaining parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The next five days will see the current reaching East Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh.

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